Sellers • December 3, 2021

The benefits of selling during the holidays!

by Brandon Bidwell

Why does it make sense to list a home for sale right now? Shouldn’t I wait until the Spring?

These are legitimate questions we hear occasionally from our clients.

It turns out there are several good reasons to list a home in December or January instead of waiting for April or May.

The first reason is low competition. Today there are only:

279 homes for sale in Larimer County
263 homes for sale in Weld County

So, a home on the market today has high odds of standing out right now versus the higher-inventory market in the Spring.

In addition to lower competition:

Buyers looking in the winter tend to be more serious and motivated by tighter timelines
Interest rates will likely be higher in the Spring which will impact the purchasing power of Buyers and how much of a premium they might be willing to pay.

Market Data • October 30, 2021

Average Home Price Increase

by Brandon Bidwell

It’s true, average prices have increased substantially over the last year.

Would you have guessed that Weld County has seen the largest increase along the Front Range?

The specific numbers are below.

As you look at the numbers, it is important to remember that average prices have increased because of appreciation and because there are more higher-end homes that are selling.

The increased volume of high-end transactions has played a big rule in increasing the average price.

Average Price of a Single-Family Home based on closings so far this month:

Metro Denver = $675,000
Larimer County = $624,000
Weld County = $514,000

Average Prices exactly one year ago:

Metro Denver = $614,000
Larimer County = $549,000
Weld County = $417,000

Market Data • October 28, 2021

Home Seller Stats

by Brandon Bidwell

Here are some fun facts about recent home sellers. This research comes from the National Association of Realtors survey of home buyers and sellers:

10 years = the average time recent home sellers have lived in their home. This number has remained essentially unchanged for the last ten years. From 1987 to 2007 the average was 6 years.
89% = the percentage of home sellers who use a Realtor to help sell their home. This has been trending higher over the last 20 years. In 2001, 79% of home sellers used a Realtor. As the transaction gets more and more complex, more sellers seek the help of a Realtor.
75% = the percentage of home sellers who found their Realtor through a personal relationship as opposed to seeking out an agent they didn’t know.
77% = the percentage of home sellers who only interviewed one Realtor for the job of selling their home.

Economic • Market Data • October 20, 2021

Perspectives on Real Estate Prices

by Brandon Bidwell

Interest Rates

Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for now.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

Economic • October 20, 2021

CO Real Estate Equity

by Brandon Bidwell

One of the reasons we are so confident about the long-term health of the market is because of the equity that exists in peoples’ homes today.

Because there is so much equity, there are very few homeowners who are ‘underwater’ with a loan that is more than the actual value of the property.

According to the latest ‘Homeowner Equity Insights’ report from CoreLogic, only 2.3% of all homes are ‘underwater’ with negative equity.

To put that in perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2009, 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity.

Nationally, homeowner equity has increased by $2.9 Trillion during the last 12 months (that’s Trillion with a ‘T’)!

Locally, only 1.4% of Colorado mortgage holders have negative equity, which is one of the lowest rates in the Country.

What this all means is very, very few distressed sales and overall health in the real estate market.

Market Data • September 15, 2021

Staggering Stat

by Brandon Bidwell

By definition, a real estate market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale.

Anything less than 4 to 6 months means a Sellers’ market, anything more means a Buyers’ market.

For example, if there are 1,000 closings per month in a market, the market would be balanced if 4,000 to 6,000 homes were available for sale.

Here is a staggering stat for you…

At the current pace of sales, the Front Range market would need 6 to 7 times more inventory for the market to be balanced.

This is why we don’t see any sort of significant market correction or anything resembling ‘the market crashing.’ Bottom line, the market is still undersupplied.

Here are the numbers:

• Larimer County has 441 properties for sale and would need 2,200 to be balanced.
• Weld County has 322 properties for sale and would need 2,000 to be balanced.
• Metro Denver has 3,023 properties for sale and would need 20,000 to be balanced.

Economic • July 9, 2021

News on Mortgage Forbearance

by Brandon Bidwell

For anyone worried that mortgage forbearance would eventually cause a flood of distressed properties to hit the market, there is good news this week.

The number of mortgages in forbearance continues to drop and hit its lowest point since April of 2020.

Loans in forbearance dropped 12% compared to one month ago.

It appears the growing economy is helping homeowners to exit forbearance and keep the market free of distressed properties.

Market Data • July 7, 2021

Local Nuances in Real Estate

by Brandon Bidwell

“All markets are local” is a commonly used phrase in real estate.

This adage is proving to be true as we notice slight changes recently in the market.

Bottom line, the market, in some locations, is not behaving exactly like it did even 30 days ago. Properties that perhaps would have received 10 or more offers last month, are now receiving only one.

It is as important as ever to examine not only the general market area, but also hyper-local markets in order to understand the nuances that exist in specific locations.

A common activity we perform with our clients is to research the months of supply in their own neighborhood. We will frequently find that this stat varies considerably from the market as a whole.

To illustrate how ‘all markets are local,’ take a look at the days of inventory statistic for the following markets:

Larimer County = 18 days
Fort Collins = 15 days
80521 Zip Code = 24 days
80525 Zip Code = 9 days

While data on the overall market clarifies overall trends, it is the hyper-local research that is incredibly valuable when pricing property. If you have questions or would like to know what is going on in your hyper-local neighborhood market just let me know. I’m always happy to share!

Market Data • July 6, 2021

More Inventory for Homebuyers!

by Brandon Bidwell

We are noticing a trend that is very good news for buyers.

Inventory has been increasing over the last month which means that buyers now have more properties to consider.

Just in the last week, the number of homes for sale has increased:

13% in Larimer County

12% in Weld County

11% in Metro Denver

If you are a buyer who has been waiting for home properties to look at, now is the time! Just let me know if I can be of assistance.

Market Data • June 7, 2021

Is there really “No Inventory”?

by Brandon Bidwell

A common phrase that is being used right now to describe the market is ‘no inventory.’

‘There’s no inventory’ is said frequently among those inside and outside of the real estate industry.

The problem with this phrase is that it is untrue.

There is inventory. Meaning, there are a significant number of new listings hitting the market.

However, there is low standing inventory. Meaning, the listings that do hit the market don’t stick around for very long before they are purchased.

Standing inventory, which is the number of active properties on the market, is down roughly 70% along the Front Range.

However, the number of new listings coming on the market is essentially:

Double compared to December 2020
Only 20% to 25% less than this time of year in 2017, 2018, and 2019

So, there is inventory available, it just sells quickly because demand is historically high right now.