Market Data • June 7, 2021

Is there really “No Inventory”?

by Brandon Bidwell

A common phrase that is being used right now to describe the market is ‘no inventory.’

‘There’s no inventory’ is said frequently among those inside and outside of the real estate industry.

The problem with this phrase is that it is untrue.

There is inventory. Meaning, there are a significant number of new listings hitting the market.

However, there is low standing inventory. Meaning, the listings that do hit the market don’t stick around for very long before they are purchased.

Standing inventory, which is the number of active properties on the market, is down roughly 70% along the Front Range.

However, the number of new listings coming on the market is essentially:

Double compared to December 2020
Only 20% to 25% less than this time of year in 2017, 2018, and 2019

So, there is inventory available, it just sells quickly because demand is historically high right now.

Market Data • June 3, 2021

Calculating Risk with Home Values

by Brandon Bidwell

The economic research blog called “Calculated Risk” just completed a fascinating study on home prices.

Specifically, they looked at the correlation between home price growth and inventory.

They used price data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and inventory data from the National Association of Realtors.

No surprise, they found that the lower the inventory the higher the home price growth. Also no surprise, as inventory goes up, price growth slows down.

This all correlates with simple economic rules of supply and demand.

The interesting part of their research is this: at a certain level of inventory, prices have the potential to go down.

That level, according to their research, is six months of inventory.

That means, prices don’t have a chance of decreasing in a market until there is at least 6 months of inventory available for sale.

To put that in perspective, today there is two weeks of inventory on the market along Colorado’s Front Range.

So, there would need to be 12 times the amount of homes for sale on the market for prices to even have a chance to go down.

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Virtual Tour • May 13, 2021

Loveland Charmer!

by Brandon Bidwell

2433 Gill Court, Loveland is a nicely updated, move-in-ready home on a cul-de-sac. Located near Lake Loveland, The Olde Course, Mehaffey Park and the Foothills, this property is near everything you may need! Every room is well equipped with Cat 6 wiring for your work and study. Plenty of granite countertop space in the kitchen. Other features include gorgeous hardwood floors, 2 fireplaces, A/C, SS appliances, updated fixtures throughout. The covered patio and private back yard give you the perfect outdoor living and entertaining area in the summer. Showings start Friday! Call for your private showing at (970) 215-1573 for more information or click the link below for more details.

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/132451680

Economic • May 8, 2021

Different Era, Different Market

by Brandon Bidwell

Recently it seems there are many attempted comparisons being made between today’s real estate market and the 2006-2007 market.

It seems that people fear a repeat of what happened to the market in 2008 and 2009.

Buyers, understandably, want to make smart decisions and don’t want to buy in advance of any downturn.

The reality is this. There are some similarities between now and the pre-bubble market of 15 years ago. Namely, prices are appreciating quickly.

However, there is one massive difference.

The inventory of homes for sale right now is drastically different than 15 years ago.

The rules of economics tell us that, in order for prices to crash, demand needs to diminish, supply needs to swell, or some combination of the two.

Here’s the deal. Supply today is a fraction of what is was 15 years ago.

Homes for sale today:

Larimer County = 238
Weld County = 226
Metro Denver = 2,594

Homes for sale 15 years ago:

Larimer County = 2,998
Weld County = 1,113
Metro Denver = 29,045

The reason why prices flattened and decreased slightly along the Front Range in 2009 is because the National economy had a meltdown and there was a glut of supply.

We do not have anything similar to those same dynamics today.

We are watching the market closely every single day. While we don’t expect the current pace of appreciation to keep up, we believe inventory levels keep us insulated from any kind of crash.

Economic • April 29, 2021

The Future of Work?

by Brandon Bidwell

This week we had the opportunity to hear a presentation by Ed McMahon who is the Senior Fellow for Sustainable Development at the Urban Land Institute.

He is a leading expert on the future of housing and development in the United States.

He sees that Colorado is positioned to massively benefit from the work from home shift taking place across the Country.

Ed cited that only 1 in 10 companies expect employees to come back to the office to work full time. The believes the future of work is a hybrid model where most employees are mixing their work hours between the company office and their home office.

What does this mean for housing demand?

Smaller cities (like Denver), suburbs and high-amenity small towns will benefit.

He sees that those places with a high quality of life will benefit the most.

Bottom line, if people are untethered from their corporate office and can live anywhere, they will choose to live in places that are nice to live.

Colorado is certainly high on the list of high-amenity and high-quality places.

So, the new work from home dynamic is another reason to be bullish on the future of Colorado real estate.

Market Data • April 28, 2021

Q1 Northern Colorado Gardner Report

by Brandon Bidwell

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Following the decline in employment last winter, Colorado has started to add jobs back into its economy. The latest data shows that the state has now recovered more than 219,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were lost due to COVID-19. This is certainly positive, but there is a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Denver and Fort Collins continue to have the greatest improvement in employment, but all markets show job levels well below pre-pandemic levels. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.6%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.6% in Fort Collins and Boulder to a high of 6.7% in Greeley. COVID-19 infection rates have started to increase again, and this has the potential to negatively impact the job market. I am hopeful that the state will not be forced to pull back reopening, but this is certainly not assured.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ 2021 started off on a bit of a sour note, with total sales down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2020. Sales were 29.2% lower than in the final quarter of 2020 as 8,645 homes sold.

❱ Sales were higher in four of the counties contained in this report, were essentially flat in one, and dropped in seven. It was pleasing to see significant sales growth in the large counties of Denver and Adams.

❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 4.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 5% higher than a year ago.

❱ The disappointing number of home sales overall can primarily be attributed to the woeful lack of inventory. Listings in the quarter were down more than 61% year over year and were 40.6% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

COLORADO HOME PRICES

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 16.5% year over year, to an average of $556,100. Home prices were also 4.4% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ Buyers appear to be out in force, and this demand—in concert with very low levels of inventory—continues to heat the market.

❱ Prices rose over last year across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of the very small Gilpin County. All other counties saw sizeable gains and the trend of double-digit price growth continued unabated.

❱ Affordability levels are becoming a greater concern as prices rise at a far faster pace than wages. Even though mortgage rates have started to rise, they haven’t yet reached the level needed to take some of the heat out of the market.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 20 days compared to the first quarter of 2020.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 25 days to sell a home in the region, down one day from the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in all but two counties.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The relatively low level of home sales is not a surprise given how few choices there are for buyers. Sellers are certainly benefitting from strong demand, as demonstrated by the significant price growth. I maintain my belief that there will be an increase in inventory as we move through the year, but it is highly unlikely that we will see a balanced market in 2021.

Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to continue to exceed supply.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market Data • April 28, 2021

Troutman Park 1st Qtr Real Estate Review

by Brandon Bidwell

We’ve got a quarter of the year now to give us an idea of what Northern Colorado’s Real Estate Market has in store for 2021. Many were surprised to see how well Real Estate in our area weathered all the storms that last year threw at all of us. I think it’s fair to say that all of us are shocked to see what’s happened through the beginning of this year!

Let’s take a look back to see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has done through March 31, compared to the same time during other recent years. Here are the numbers:

2021 Q1 – 9 homes sold for $3,989,900. They ranged from $405,500 – $630,000 at an average of $433,322

2020 Q1 – 13 homes sold for $4,924,800. They ranged from $325,000-$420,000 at an average of $378,830

2019 Q1 – 12 homes sold for $4,439,400. They ranged from $325,000-$450,500 at an average of $369,950

2018 Q1 – 9 homes sold for $3,078,000. They ranged from $290,000-$394,000 at an average of $342,000

2017 Q1 – 7 homes sold for $2,377,200. They ranged from $257,500-$379,700 at an average of $339,600

2016 Q1 – 6 homes sold for $1,871,500. They ranged from $205,000-$400,000 at an average of $311,916

2015 Q1 – 15 homes sold for $4,004,175. They ranged from $218,325-$302,500 at an average of $266,945

We have a new All Time High in our neighborhood! The home at 819 Marble was listed for sale on at $585,000 on February 18, 2021 and quickly had 8 offers in it’s first few days on the market. It went under contract on Feb 22 and closed 22 days later on March 16th.

What I found interesting about the sale of 819 Marble at $630,000 was that it passed the previous neighborhood all time high sales price of $507,000 (731 Benthaven St) by $123,000! That’s an increase of 24.26%!

We’re seeing this in other areas throughout Fort Collins as well. The reason for such a significant jump is the inventory available for sale is down 71% here in Larimer County compared to last year at the same time. With all time low interest rates available many decided to put off their search for a new home and refinance the mortgage they were currently in to either save money or add on and improve their current residence.

That combined with the fact that home builders are seeing increases in costs and reduction in materials available (lumber, appliances, etc) means that there is a historic low in terms of what is available for buyers to choose from. At the same time there is a rise in demand because of the low interest rates and increasing desire for high quality suburban living.

The end result means there is a lot of opportunity for sellers to take advantage of this perfect storm if they want to cash in on all that equity that has developed.

If you have questions about anything or if you’re curious about what your home might be worth, just let me know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002, live right here in Troutman Park and I’m always happy to share.

Market Data • April 17, 2021

Appreciation Rates along the Front Range

by Brandon Bidwell

While our temperatures felt like record lows this week, real estate prices have been hitting record highs along the Front Range.

Here is the average price for residential sales so far this year in each of our Front Range markets (includes both single-family and multi-family):

Fort Collins = $567,000
Loveland = $449,000
Windsor = $537,000
Greeley = $376,000
Metro Denver = $544,000

These prices are generally up 10% or more compared to last year.

If you are curious to know what your personal property is worth today, even if you aren’t considering moving any time soon, I’m happy to do the research for you. Just let me know!

Market Data • April 14, 2021

The percentage of homes selling at or above list price

by Brandon Bidwell

What percent of properties are selling for list price or more!?!

Take a guess. Of the properties that have sold so far in April, how many of them sold for at least list price?

Meaning, how many of them had a final sales price that was equal to or above the asking price?

The answer…

88% for properties in Larimer County and 86% for properties in Weld County.

We have been tracking this statistic for many years and this is a new record high.

Here’s something else that is interesting…

Not only do the number of properties selling for over asking price exceed the number selling under asking price, they also exceed those selling at list price.

There are roughly double the amount of properties selling for more than asking as compared to the number selling at asking price.

This is all a result of the low inventory, high demand market that we are experiencing.

We are using all of our researching, offer writing and negotiating skills right now to help our clients win in this highly competitive market.

Market Data • April 6, 2021

Interest Rate Predicition!?!

by Brandon Bidwell

Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner has made his new mortgage interest rate prediction for 2021.

You can see his breakdown of interest rates and other economic factors by clicking on the image below and watching his newest video.

By the end of the year he predicts rates will rise to 3.63%. By the end of the 3rd quarter, he sees rates at 3.48%.

This would be a 0.5% increase by year-end compared to today.

What this would mean for home buyers is a 5% higher monthly payment compared to today.