Market Data • January 21, 2022

How low is Inventory?

by Brandon Bidwell

The standing inventory of residential properties currently for sale is staggeringly low.

The number of active properties for sale is almost 90% below the average for this time of year.

In Metro Denver, there are 1,144 residential properties for sale today.

In Larimer County, there are 136 and in Weld County there are 174.

Current inventory along the Front Range is essentially half of what it was one year ago.

The low standing inventory bolsters our belief that nothing resembling a decline in housing prices is on the horizon. The low supply will continue to put upward pressure on prices.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

Blog • January 14, 2022

To wait or not to wait?

by Brandon Bidwell

Interest rates are expected to steadily rise over the course of 2022. Consensus forecasts put rates at about 3.7% by the end of next year (still historically low, but certainly higher than they are today). That combined with rising prices will affect affordability. Don’t wait! Partner with a real estate professional to discuss your goals and the unique opportunities you have in today’s housing market.

Economic • December 18, 2021

Job Openings in Construction

by Brandon Bidwell

It’s not just the availability of materials impacting home builders today, it’s also the availability of labor.

The market could use more inventory. Home builders are trying to catch up.

You’ve likely read the stories about the cost and availability of materials making an impact on home builders’ ability to keep pace with demand.

It turns out they have another factor impacting them as well- labor.

There are more construction job openings than ever before in history.

This is according to a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

There are 410,000 job openings in the Construction Sector.

A year ago there were 253,000.

If you know of anyone looking for work, there is a good chance a home builder could use the help.

Sellers • December 3, 2021

The benefits of selling during the holidays!

by Brandon Bidwell

Why does it make sense to list a home for sale right now? Shouldn’t I wait until the Spring?

These are legitimate questions we hear occasionally from our clients.

It turns out there are several good reasons to list a home in December or January instead of waiting for April or May.

The first reason is low competition. Today there are only:

279 homes for sale in Larimer County
263 homes for sale in Weld County

So, a home on the market today has high odds of standing out right now versus the higher-inventory market in the Spring.

In addition to lower competition:

Buyers looking in the winter tend to be more serious and motivated by tighter timelines
Interest rates will likely be higher in the Spring which will impact the purchasing power of Buyers and how much of a premium they might be willing to pay.

Market Data • October 30, 2021

Average Home Price Increase

by Brandon Bidwell

It’s true, average prices have increased substantially over the last year.

Would you have guessed that Weld County has seen the largest increase along the Front Range?

The specific numbers are below.

As you look at the numbers, it is important to remember that average prices have increased because of appreciation and because there are more higher-end homes that are selling.

The increased volume of high-end transactions has played a big rule in increasing the average price.

Average Price of a Single-Family Home based on closings so far this month:

Metro Denver = $675,000
Larimer County = $624,000
Weld County = $514,000

Average Prices exactly one year ago:

Metro Denver = $614,000
Larimer County = $549,000
Weld County = $417,000

Troutman Park • October 28, 2021

Troutman Park Q3 Market Update

by Brandon Bidwell

Now that we’ve made it through the 3rd Quarter of 2021 it’s time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has performed compared to other recent years. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see the appreciation we’ve noticed.

In Northern Colorado we typically see the market take a little bit of a seasonal breather during the 3rd quarter of the year as families put their home search on pause while getting ready for back to school. This year was no exception but the activity around Troutman Park didn’t drop off as much as we’ve seen in other years.

Here are the numbers compared to the 3rd Quarter of recent years:

2021 Q3 – 21 homes sold for $9,904,802. They ranged from $352,052-$623,000 at an average of $471,657

2020 Q3 – 27 homes sold for $11,109,356. They ranged from $340,200-$480,000 at an average of $411,457

2019 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $7,555,400. They ranged from $300,000-$494,500 at an average of $397,652

2018 Q3 – 17 homes sold for $6,043,650. They ranged from $290,000-$449,500 at an average of $355,508

2017 Q3 – 18 homes sold for $6,290,750. They ranged from $296,000-$429,900 at an average of $349,486

2016 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $6,288,000. They ranged from $260,000-$405,000 at an average of $330,947

If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if you ever have questions.

Economic • Market Data • October 20, 2021

Perspectives on Real Estate Prices

by Brandon Bidwell

Interest Rates

Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for now.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

Market Data • October 20, 2021

Is Housing Inventory Increasing?

by Brandon Bidwell

A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.

The way we currently measure inventory is in days.

Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.

The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.

Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:

Larimer County = 25 days
Weld County = 23 days
Metro Denver = 21 days

Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.

Economic • October 20, 2021

CO Real Estate Equity

by Brandon Bidwell

One of the reasons we are so confident about the long-term health of the market is because of the equity that exists in peoples’ homes today.

Because there is so much equity, there are very few homeowners who are ‘underwater’ with a loan that is more than the actual value of the property.

According to the latest ‘Homeowner Equity Insights’ report from CoreLogic, only 2.3% of all homes are ‘underwater’ with negative equity.

To put that in perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2009, 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity.

Nationally, homeowner equity has increased by $2.9 Trillion during the last 12 months (that’s Trillion with a ‘T’)!

Locally, only 1.4% of Colorado mortgage holders have negative equity, which is one of the lowest rates in the Country.

What this all means is very, very few distressed sales and overall health in the real estate market.

Market Data • September 15, 2021

Staggering Stat

by Brandon Bidwell

By definition, a real estate market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale.

Anything less than 4 to 6 months means a Sellers’ market, anything more means a Buyers’ market.

For example, if there are 1,000 closings per month in a market, the market would be balanced if 4,000 to 6,000 homes were available for sale.

Here is a staggering stat for you…

At the current pace of sales, the Front Range market would need 6 to 7 times more inventory for the market to be balanced.

This is why we don’t see any sort of significant market correction or anything resembling ‘the market crashing.’ Bottom line, the market is still undersupplied.

Here are the numbers:

• Larimer County has 441 properties for sale and would need 2,200 to be balanced.
• Weld County has 322 properties for sale and would need 2,000 to be balanced.
• Metro Denver has 3,023 properties for sale and would need 20,000 to be balanced.