Market Data • September 29, 2020

Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Update

by Brandon Bidwell

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

COVID-19 had significant negative impacts on employment in Colorado. The pandemic caused the loss of over 342,000 jobs in March and April as unemployment rose to 12.2%. For comparison, peak unemployment following the Great Recession was 8.9%. However, it appears as if the massive contraction in employment is behind us (at least for now). Employment in Colorado rose in May by 68,800 jobs, a monthly increase of 2.8%, pushing the unemployment rate down to 10.2%. Regionally, the Denver metro area added 18,600 jobs in May and the Fort Collins metro area added 3,500 jobs. It is certainly too early to say that we are out of the woods, but we seem to be headed in a positive direction. Colorado’s COVID-19 infection rates started increasing again in June, which could slow down the economic recovery. However, I do not believe that it is likely to have any substantial impact on the housing market.

HOME SALES

In the second quarter of 2020, 9,867 homes sold. This represents a drop of 20.7% compared to the second quarter of 2019, but sales were 7.4% higher than in the first quarter of this year.
Sales dropped across all markets compared to the second quarter of 2019. I do not find this concerning as the drop can be attributed to limited supply and COVID-19.
Inventory levels remain tight, with the average number of homes for sale in the quarter down 21.3% from the same period in 2019. However, listings were up an impressive 15.6% over the first quarter of 2020.
I was pleased to see total pending sales in the quarter increase 16.3% compared to the first quarter, suggesting closing data for the third quarter will be better than we are currently experiencing.

HOME PRICES

Home prices held steady compared to the second quarter of 2019 at an average of $480,831. Prices were up 0.7% compared to the first quarter of this year.
Interest rates remain at very low levels and will stay in the low 3% range for the balance of the year, if not longer. This can allow prices to pick back up.
Price growth across the region was varied. Seven counties saw price growth and five experienced a drop in average sale price. Clear Creek County again saw prices rise substantially. However, as you are likely aware, it is a very small market and subject to wild swings. Prices dropped most in the equally small Gilpin County.
I am still watching affordability in many Colorado markets and will take this temporary “pause” as a good thing.

DAYS ON MARKET

The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped by only one day compared to the second quarter of 2019.
The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in eight counties, remained static in one, and rose in three compared to the second quarter of 2019.
It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
The Colorado housing market is demonstrating solid demand, and listing activity is trending higher. I expect that the summer market will be brisk.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Demand appears to be returning, which—combined with historically low interest rates—should lead to a brisk summer housing market. Assuming that the state gets new infection rates under control, I do not see why the housing market wouldn’t perform well this summer. As such, I have moved the needle just a little more in favor of home sellers.

Economic • Market Data • July 22, 2020

Consumer Confidence in Housing Survey

by Brandon Bidwell

This week Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, dives into the most recent National Housing Survey results which tell us a lot about consumer confidence both pre- and post-COVID and whether or not they feel this is a good time to buy or sell a home. The results might surprise you.

Market Data • July 22, 2020

Housing Numbers needed for CO

by Brandon Bidwell

It’s interesting to look at what population growth means for housing. On average, along the Front Range, 2.5 people live in each housing unit.

What that means is 4 housing units are needed for every 10 people who live here. So, for every 1000 new people moving to our area, 400 new housing units are required.

The population of Metro Denver is just under 3,000,000 and the population of Northern Colorado is just over 650,000.

Assuming the Front Range grows in population at 2% per year, that means 60,000 new people in Metro Denver and 13,000 new people in Northern Colorado each year.

To house those people, 24,000 new housing units need to be built per year in Metro Denver and 5,200 in Northern Colorado.

Community • July 16, 2020

Buying With your Pets in Mind!

by Brandon Bidwell

Image source: Canva

For many of us, pets play a central role in our home life, so taking into account what is best for them when buying a home is important for both their happiness and that of your entire household.

Your neighborhood

When looking for homes that are well suited to both you and your furry companion, consider the area surrounding the home. If your pet is an indoor/outdoor animal, it’s important to examine the hustle and bustle of the neighborhood. If your pet spends time outside, a busy neighborhood could be dangerous, and depending on the level of traffic, he or she may need to be on a leash at all times.

How conducive is the neighborhood for taking your pet on walks? If you frequently walk your pet, look for neighborhoods with sidewalks. If your pet enjoys being off-leash, consider prioritizing homes with green belts, parks, trails, or designated off-leash areas nearby. It’s also a good idea to identify where the local emergency pet centers and veterinarian clinics are to insure there is sufficient medical care for your pet in proximity to where you live.

Your House

Size: Is the house big enough? Depending on the type of pet, or breed of animal, space may be the most important factor in picking a pet-friendly home. If you are moving into a bigger space than you were in previously, understand your pet will likely take to the additional room differently. On the flip side, if you are downsizing, be mindful of how it might impact your pet.
Yard: If you have a pet that spends time outside, it’s important to pay particular attention to the yard. Is it large enough? Does it have a secure fence? Is there easy access between the home and the yard?
Flooring: Pet-friendly flooring can be tough. Surfaces that can be repaired or refinished when scratched are typically the best options for homes with pets. Sealing additional layers will build up the resistance to damage from paws, claws, and general pet wear and tear.
Carpet: Cats are notorious for clawing and scratching at carpet, and dogs are infamous for bringing the outdoors in with them. Consider carpeting of a lesser quality in the area where your pets spend most of the time, or search for carpets that are stain resistant and easy to clean.
Stairs: Older pets and multileveled homes are at odds. Consider the age of your pet and how active you expect them to be so that you don’t find yourself in a position where you’re having to carry your pet between floors.

HOA?

When looking at a home, ask whether or not it is a part of a Homeowners Association and what restrictions may apply to the property. For instance, certain HOA developments limit the number and/or type of pets per household.

Most pet owners take the needs of their pets seriously. In fact, in a recent Realtor.com survey, 75 percent of the respondents said they would not accept an otherwise perfect home if it didn’t meet the needs of their pet. When it comes down to it, prioritizing your pet when buying a home not only insures your pet’s well-being, but that of your household, as well.

Home Design • July 16, 2020

Setting Up your Home Gym

by Brandon Bidwell

Image Source: Canva

As the stay-at-home hours add up, setting up a home gym is not only physically beneficial, but can bring some added mental wellness to the new normal many of us find ourselves in. In comparison to a gym membership, even with the up-front investment of purchasing equipment, an at-home gym can deliver savings in the long run. With far-ranging fitness gear options online, there are more ways to save than ever before.

Location, location, location

Before the lunges, pushups, and weightlifting, the first step in setting up your at-home gym is deciding where to build it. You’ll want plenty of room for the activities and workouts you have in mind. Rooms with low ceilings or narrow walls are not well-suited for a gym. They will limit your ability to perform any kinds of jumping exercises or workouts with wide ranging movements. This space is dedicated to physical activity and the environment should support that. If extra space is hard to come by in your home, consider taking your gym outdoors to a patio, multipurpose space, or other less commonly used area.

A space with level, hard flooring, like wood, laminate, or tile, is the best fit for your gym, especially if you plan on establishing a workout plan based around lifting or cardio. Having spatial awareness at all times is important while working out, so you’ll want plenty of light in your home gym. Mirrors are a common fixture in gyms, consider adding one to your wall to analyze your technique.

Gear up

Strength training: Simple workout tools like kettlebells and dumbbells allow you to perform a variety of workouts without taking up much space. Kettlebells are a great tool for incorporating cardio workouts with added weight. Dumbbells at a lower weight are better for toning exercises, while those at heavier weights are better for low-repetition, bulk exercises.
Cardio training: Smaller workout tools such as jump ropes, wrist and ankle weights will add intensity to your cardio workouts. Yoga mats provide proper support while performing core exercises or other body weight circuit workouts during your cardio sessions.
Large equipment: To get the most out of large workout equipment like treadmills, stair climbers, and bikes in your home gym, plan for them to be a significant part of your workouts.
Additional: Applying a layer of gym flooring will help prevent damage and provide added support. If you prefer music and/or video to accompany your workouts, add speakers and a TV to get the motivational juices flowing.

Establish a routine

Your home gym is no good if it gets no use. With zero commute time to account for, arrange a workout routine that suits your daily schedule. Even if you have 30 minutes, getting into a routine of working out is the key to building up your healthy lifestyle in this new normal of home life.

Once your home gym is set up, it can be either your individual fitness sanctuary or an opportunity to work out with others. Invite a friend to exercise via video chat and schedule times to feel the burn together. With more virtual fitness classes available now than ever, surf the web to find the classes that best fit your schedule and desired workout intensity.

Market Data • July 10, 2020

More Homes Needed to Balance Market

by Brandon Bidwell

Our Real Estate market is in short supply right now! More homes are necessary to fulfill the need of current buyer demand.

Compared to exactly one year ago, the supply of homes is down:

32.6% in Metro Denver
25.1% in Northern Colorado

An interesting and useful measurement we track is months of inventory. This stat tells how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.

Of course, months of supply can vary greatly by price range and location. However, this stat does a good job of explaining the overall state of the market.

Specifically, months of supply tells us if the market is in balance.

A ‘balanced’ market is when there is 4 to 6 months of supply. A buyers market occurs when the stat is higher than this range. A sellers market occurs when it is lower.

The months of supply looks like this in our market:

1.0 months in Metro Denver
1.3 months in Northern Colorado

What this means is our markets are significantly under-supplied and more homes are needed to meet demand. With that being the case you can expect that overall property values will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

Uncategorized • May 22, 2020

How Fast are Homes Selling?

by Brandon Bidwell

Here’s something true about today’s market. Properties are selling fast.

Compared to one year ago, the number of days it takes for a property to sell is significantly lower.

The industry term is “Days on Market” or DOM.

DOM is way down.

Here is the comparison of May 2020 versus May 2019:

Metro Denver down 22%
Larimer County down 19%
Weld County down 16%

Initially, this may seem counter-intuitive. How could homes be selling faster in today’s environment?

Here’s the deal. The buyers and sellers who are active in today’s market are serious.

There really aren’t ‘tire-kicker’ buyers out looking at properties just for the fun of it.

There really aren’t sellers testing the market to ‘see what they can get.’

For the most part, buyers and sellers are on a specific mission and this mindset is showing up in the numbers.

For sellers especially, this is no time to test the market and be overly aggressive on price.

Properties that are priced right and in good condition are selling and often selling fast.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Buyers • May 8, 2020

What the Numbers Say

by Brandon Bidwell

April represents the first time we can look at the impact of COVID-19 on a full month of real estate activity.

To no one’s surprise, activity in April in terms of closings and new contracts did slow significantly.

Much of this slowing was caused by in person showings not being allowed for most of the month.

(showings are now allowed again by following Safe Showings protocols)

Here’s what the numbers say…

Closed transactions were down compared to April 2019

26% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld)
27% in Metro Denver

New written purchase agreements were down compared to April 2020

48% in Northern Colorado
44% in Metro Denver

So, while activity did slow, there was nothing resembling a “screeching halt” that took place.

While the way property is shown has certainly changed, the market is still very active and we expect activity to increase even more with showings now being allowed again.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Market Data • April 18, 2020

Economist Q&A Webinar (Wed 4/22)

by Brandon Bidwell

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On Wednesday April 22nd you are invited to a special online event with Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

He will be giving his insights into the U.S. economy and what that means for real estate along the Front Range of Colorado.

You will hear the answers to the biggest questions we are hearing from clients now like “do you think housing prices will crash?”

This event is exclusively for clients and friends of Windermere Real Estate. To receive the registration link simply comment on this blog or reach out to your Windermere real estate broker.

Many of you have heard Matthew speak at our Market Forecast events we hold each year in January. He is famous for making complex economic dynamics very simple to understand.

You will get useful and valuable information which will give you clarity about where the market is headed and when we can expect the economy to improve.

For example Matthew predicts unemployment to hit 15% by the end of June, but then to improve to 8% by year-end and 6% by this time next year.

Again, if you would like the link just comment on this blog or reach out to your Windermere broker.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Shelter in Place and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are working at home, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Market Data • March 10, 2020

Economic History Lesson

by Brandon Bidwell

With the stock market on a wild ride and the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1,000 points yesterday, it makes some people wonder if the local real estate market might also crash or at least “correct.”

A little history lesson is in order.

Over the last 40 years, the real estate market along the Front Range has averaged 5.5% appreciation per year.

The highest appreciation in one year was 15.9% in 1994.

The lowest ever was -4.0% in 1982.

The last time Wall Street was in turmoil and the stock market was plummeting was 2008. This was, for many reasons, the worst economy of our lifetime.

That year real estate along the Front Range dropped 2.2%.

Meanwhile that year the Dow Jones fell 33.8%.

Bottom line, our market has no history of crashing or even experiencing a major correction.

Why is that?

The answer is fundamentals.

Our local economy has inherent fundamentals that insulate it from big downturns.

We have an incredibly diverse economy which is not reliant upon a single industry. We have all the way from health care, to technology, agriculture, oil and gas, major universities, and financial services (just to name a few).

We are a global destination with a major international airport.

Oh, and the quality of life here isn’t too shabby.

Prices of real estate, just like prices of anything, come down to basic economic principles of supply and demand.

Because of our diverse economy and desirable quality of life, there has been strong, consistent demand for housing along the Front Range.

While there may be little bumps along the way, over the long term our market has proven that it performs.