EconomicMarket Data October 28, 2020

Housing and Economic Update

In this episode Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner dives into three of the latest housing market data releases and gives context to their historical significance.

Troutman Park October 21, 2020

Troutman Park Real Estate Market Update Q3 2020

Now that we’ve made it through the 3rd Quarter of 2020 it’s time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has performed compared to other recent years. Earlier in the year many felt like property values would decline like so many other investments did through all the Covid-19 adjustments. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see that we’ve actually fared quite well though.

In Northern Colorado we typically see the market take a little bit of a seasonal breather during the 3rd quarter of the year as families put their home search on pause to get ready for back to school. This year has been a little different though as we saw our neighborhood’s real estate sales accelerate significantly from July through September.

Here are the numbers compared to the 3rd Quarter of recent years:

2020 Q3 – 27 homes sold for $11,109,356. They ranged from $340,200-$480,000 at an average of $411,457

2019 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $7,555,400. They ranged from $300,000-$494,500 at an average of $397,652

2018 Q3 – 17 homes sold for $6,043,650. They ranged from $290,000-$449,500 at an average of $355,508

2017 Q3 – 18 homes sold for $6,290,750. They ranged from $296,000-$429,900 at an average of $349,486

2016 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $6,288,000. They ranged from $260,000-$405,000 at an average of $330,947

It is noteworthy to point out that the 1st two Quarters of 2020 only saw 2 more sales in our neighborhood than the 3rd Quarter!

If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if you ever have questions.

Market Data September 29, 2020

Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

COVID-19 had significant negative impacts on employment in Colorado. The pandemic caused the loss of over 342,000 jobs in March and April as unemployment rose to 12.2%. For comparison, peak unemployment following the Great Recession was 8.9%. However, it appears as if the massive contraction in employment is behind us (at least for now). Employment in Colorado rose in May by 68,800 jobs, a monthly increase of 2.8%, pushing the unemployment rate down to 10.2%. Regionally, the Denver metro area added 18,600 jobs in May and the Fort Collins metro area added 3,500 jobs. It is certainly too early to say that we are out of the woods, but we seem to be headed in a positive direction. Colorado’s COVID-19 infection rates started increasing again in June, which could slow down the economic recovery. However, I do not believe that it is likely to have any substantial impact on the housing market.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the second quarter of 2020, 9,867 homes sold. This represents a drop of 20.7% compared to the second quarter of 2019, but sales were 7.4% higher than in the first quarter of this year.
  • Sales dropped across all markets compared to the second quarter of 2019. I do not find this concerning as the drop can be attributed to limited supply and COVID-19.
  • Inventory levels remain tight, with the average number of homes for sale in the quarter down 21.3% from the same period in 2019. However, listings were up an impressive 15.6% over the first quarter of 2020.
  • I was pleased to see total pending sales in the quarter increase 16.3% compared to the first quarter, suggesting closing data for the third quarter will be better than we are currently experiencing.

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices held steady compared to the second quarter of 2019 at an average of $480,831. Prices were up 0.7% compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • Interest rates remain at very low levels and will stay in the low 3% range for the balance of the year, if not longer. This can allow prices to pick back up.
  • Price growth across the region was varied. Seven counties saw price growth and five experienced a drop in average sale price. Clear Creek County again saw prices rise substantially. However, as you are likely aware, it is a very small market and subject to wild swings. Prices dropped most in the equally small Gilpin County.
  • I am still watching affordability in many Colorado markets and will take this temporary “pause” as a good thing.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped by only one day compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in eight counties, remained static in one, and rose in three compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
  • The Colorado housing market is demonstrating solid demand, and listing activity is trending higher. I expect that the summer market will be brisk.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Demand appears to be returning, which—combined with historically low interest rates—should lead to a brisk summer housing market. Assuming that the state gets new infection rates under control, I do not see why the housing market wouldn’t perform well this summer. As such, I have moved the needle just a little more in favor of home sellers.

 

Market DataTroutman Park July 17, 2020

Troutman Park Mid-Year Real Estate Review

Now that we’ve made it through a very unique 1st half of 2020 it’s a good time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has done compared to other recent years. Many felt like property values would decline like so many other investments did through all the Covid-19 adjustments. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see that we’ve actually fared quite well though. Here are the numbers:

2020 Q1-Q2  29 homes sold for $11,357,425. They ranged from $325,000-$507,000 at an average of $391,635

2019 Q1-Q2  33 homes sold for $12,724,583. They ranged from $320,000-$477,000 at an average of $385,593

2018 Q1-Q2  24 homes sold for $8,813,900. They ranged from $290,000-$465,000 at an average of $367,245

2017 Q1-Q2  25 homes sold for $8,594,519. They ranged from $257,000-$443,000 at an average of $343,780

2016 Q1-Q2  27 homes sold for $8,645,100. They ranged from $205,000-$436,000 at an average of $320,188

A noteworthy sale from April this year was 731 Benthaven St which set the all time record high for our neighborhood at $507,000! So as you can see the 1st half of 2020 was actually quite impressive for property values here in Troutman Park, especially in light of everything we’ve all gone through recently.

If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if you ever have questions.

 

Market Data December 18, 2019

2020 Economic & Housing Market Forecast

As we head toward the end of the year, it’s time to recap how the U.S. economy and housing markets performed this year and offer my predictions for 2020.

 

U.S. Economy

In general, the economy performed pretty much as I expected this year: job growth slowed but the unemployment rate still hovers around levels not seen since the late 1960s.

Following the significant drop in corporate tax rates in January 2018, economic growth experience a big jump. However, we haven’t been able to continue those gains and I doubt we’ll return to 2%+ growth next year. Due to this slowing, I expect GDP to come in at only +1.4% next year. Non-residential fixed investment has started to wane as companies try to anticipate where economic policy will move next year. Furthermore, many businesses remain concerned over ongoing trade issues with China.

In 2020, I expect payrolls to continue growing, but the rate of growth will slow as the country adds fewer than 1.7 million new jobs. Due to this hiring slow down, the unemployment rate will start to rise, but still end the year at a very respectable 4.1%.

Many economists, including me, spent much of 2019 worried about the specter of a looming recession in 2020. Thankfully, such fears have started to wane (at least for now).

Despite some concerning signs, the likelihood that we will enter a recession in 2020 has dropped to about 26%. If we manage to stave off a recession in 2020, the possibility of a slowdown in 2021 is around 74%. That said, I fully expect that any drop in growth will be mild and will not negatively affect the U.S. housing market.

 

Existing Homes

As I write this article, full-year data has yet to be released. However, I feel confident that 2019 will end with a slight rise in home sales. For 2020, I expect sales to rise around 2.9% to just over 5.5 million units.

Home prices next year will continue to rise as mortgage rates remain very competitive. Look for prices to increase 3.8% in 2020 as demand continues to exceed supply and more first-time buyers enter the market.

In the year ahead, I expect the share of first-time buyers to grow, making them a very significant component of the housing market.

 

New Homes

The new-home market has been pretty disappointing for most of the year due to significant obstacles preventing builders from building. Land prices, labor and material costs, and regulatory fees make it very hard for builders to produce affordable housing. As a result, many are still focused on the luxury market where there are profits to be made, despite high demand from entry-level buyers.

Builders are aware of this and are doing their best to deliver more affordable product. As such, I believe single-family housing starts will rise next year to 942,000 units—an increase of 6.8% over 2019 and the highest number since 2007.

As the market starts to deliver more units, sales will rise just over 5%, but the increase in sales will be due to lower priced housing. Accordingly, new home prices are set to rise just 2.5% next year.

 

Mortgage Rates

Next year will still be very positive from a home-financing perspective, with the average rate for a 30-year conventional, fixed-rate mortgage averaging under 4%. That said, if there are significant improvements in trade issues with China, this forecast may change, but not significantly.

 

Conclusion

In this coming year, affordability issues will persist in many markets around the country, such as San Francisco; Los Angeles; San Jose; Seattle; and Bend, Oregon. The market will also continue to favor home sellers, but we will start to move more toward balance, resulting in another positive year overall for U.S. housing.

 

 

About Matthew Gardner:

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Troutman Park November 4, 2019

Troutman Park’s Real Estate Market Update

Let’s take a look at Troutman Park’s single family sales data for the last several years through the 3rd quarter of each year. This includes homes in Willow Park, Four Seasons, Larkborough, Woodlands, Park South & South Glen.

Total sales:

2019 Q1-Q3 – 52 Homes Sold for a total of $20,279,983 Average Price $389,999 Average Days on Market 43

2018 Q1-Q3 – 41 Homes Sold for a total of $14,857,550 Average Price $362,379 Average Days on Market 37

2017 Q1-Q3 – 43 Homes Sold for a total of $14,885,269 Average Price $346,169 Average Days on Market 44

2016 Q1-Q3 – 46 Homes Sold for a total of $14,933,100 Average Price $324,632 Average Days on Market 41

2015 Q1-Q3 – 63 Homes Sold for a total of $18,187,045 Average Price $288,683 Average Days on Market 37

 

Right now there are 8 homes available for sale in Troutman Park giving us just 1.5 months supply of inventory. Anything less that 6 months supply is considered to be a sellers market while anything over 6 months would favor buyers.

It’s still a sellers market but we’re seeing far fewer competitive situations with homes for sale throughout Fort Collins right now. The situations where there is competition tend to be a lot less intense (fewer offers) than they were a couple years ago.

What all this means is that home sellers will have to be a little more patient these days and buyers have a little more time to think while considering their next move.

If you have questions about your property or your home search feel free to reach out. I’ve been through the vast majority of homes for sale in Troutman Park and I’m always happy to share what I’ve learned.

 

Market Data October 28, 2019

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere real estate agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy picked up, adding 64,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a growth rate of 2.4%. Over the past three months, the state added an impressive 28,300 new jobs.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, down from 3.4% a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago. It is fair to say that all markets are now at full employment.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the third quarter of 2019, 17,562 homes sold. This is an increase of 5.1% compared to the third quarter of 2018 but 1.6% lower than the second quarter (which can be attributed to seasonality). Pending sales — a sign of future closings —rose 9.7%, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of 2019 are likely to show further improvement.
  • Seven counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while four saw sales activity drop. I am not concerned about this because all the markets that experienced slowing are relatively small and, therefore, subject to significant swings.
  • I was pleased to see an ongoing increase in the number of homes for sale (+16.9%), which means home buyers have more choice and feel less urgency.
  • Inventory levels are moving higher, and demand for housing appears to be quite strong. As I predicted last quarter, home sales rose in the third quarter compared to a year ago.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 3.8% year-over-year to $477,776.
  • Interest rates are at very competitive levels and are likely to remain below 4% for the balance of the year. As a result, prices will continue to rise but at a more modest pace.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 7.8%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek County, but, as mentioned earlier, this is a small market so I don’t believe this is indicative of an ongoing trend.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.

 

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose seven days compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • It took an average of 30 days to sell a home in the region — an increase of 1 day compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • The Colorado housing market is still performing well, and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is a function of greater choice in homes for sale and buyers taking a little longer to choose a home.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the third quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BuyersInvestorsSellers October 8, 2019

Price Reductions

Some fascinating research from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors…

37% of properties that sold last month along the Front Range had a price reduction at some point during the listing period.

Property owners who have to reduce their price take an average of 58 days to receive an offer.

Those who don’t have to reduce their price only take 13 days.

This stat obviously speaks to the importance of pricing your property right on day one.

Fort Collins RealtorMarket Data September 13, 2019

How’s the Market?

If you are curious to know the current stats, trends, and dynamics in our market, this online workshop is for you!

See exactly what is happening in our real estate market today so you are clear about where it is going.

The questions we will answer for you:

– Are prices still going up?
– Is there a housing bubble?
– Will interest rates ever go up?
– Is now a good time to buy or sell?
– Where are all these people coming from?

Please reach out to your Fort Collins Realtor Brandon Bidwell today if you have any additional questions or wish to receive a complimentary home pricing analysis. I can be reached at (970) 215-1573 or bidwell@windermere.com