EconomicMarket Data October 28, 2020

Housing and Economic Update

In this episode Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner dives into three of the latest housing market data releases and gives context to their historical significance.

Troutman Park October 21, 2020

Troutman Park Real Estate Market Update Q3 2020

Now that we’ve made it through the 3rd Quarter of 2020 it’s time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has performed compared to other recent years. Earlier in the year many felt like property values would decline like so many other investments did through all the Covid-19 adjustments. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see that we’ve actually fared quite well though.

In Northern Colorado we typically see the market take a little bit of a seasonal breather during the 3rd quarter of the year as families put their home search on pause to get ready for back to school. This year has been a little different though as we saw our neighborhood’s real estate sales accelerate significantly from July through September.

Here are the numbers compared to the 3rd Quarter of recent years:

2020 Q3 – 27 homes sold for $11,109,356. They ranged from $340,200-$480,000 at an average of $411,457

2019 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $7,555,400. They ranged from $300,000-$494,500 at an average of $397,652

2018 Q3 – 17 homes sold for $6,043,650. They ranged from $290,000-$449,500 at an average of $355,508

2017 Q3 – 18 homes sold for $6,290,750. They ranged from $296,000-$429,900 at an average of $349,486

2016 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $6,288,000. They ranged from $260,000-$405,000 at an average of $330,947

It is noteworthy to point out that the 1st two Quarters of 2020 only saw 2 more sales in our neighborhood than the 3rd Quarter!

If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if you ever have questions.

Market Data September 29, 2020

Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

COVID-19 had significant negative impacts on employment in Colorado. The pandemic caused the loss of over 342,000 jobs in March and April as unemployment rose to 12.2%. For comparison, peak unemployment following the Great Recession was 8.9%. However, it appears as if the massive contraction in employment is behind us (at least for now). Employment in Colorado rose in May by 68,800 jobs, a monthly increase of 2.8%, pushing the unemployment rate down to 10.2%. Regionally, the Denver metro area added 18,600 jobs in May and the Fort Collins metro area added 3,500 jobs. It is certainly too early to say that we are out of the woods, but we seem to be headed in a positive direction. Colorado’s COVID-19 infection rates started increasing again in June, which could slow down the economic recovery. However, I do not believe that it is likely to have any substantial impact on the housing market.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the second quarter of 2020, 9,867 homes sold. This represents a drop of 20.7% compared to the second quarter of 2019, but sales were 7.4% higher than in the first quarter of this year.
  • Sales dropped across all markets compared to the second quarter of 2019. I do not find this concerning as the drop can be attributed to limited supply and COVID-19.
  • Inventory levels remain tight, with the average number of homes for sale in the quarter down 21.3% from the same period in 2019. However, listings were up an impressive 15.6% over the first quarter of 2020.
  • I was pleased to see total pending sales in the quarter increase 16.3% compared to the first quarter, suggesting closing data for the third quarter will be better than we are currently experiencing.

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices held steady compared to the second quarter of 2019 at an average of $480,831. Prices were up 0.7% compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • Interest rates remain at very low levels and will stay in the low 3% range for the balance of the year, if not longer. This can allow prices to pick back up.
  • Price growth across the region was varied. Seven counties saw price growth and five experienced a drop in average sale price. Clear Creek County again saw prices rise substantially. However, as you are likely aware, it is a very small market and subject to wild swings. Prices dropped most in the equally small Gilpin County.
  • I am still watching affordability in many Colorado markets and will take this temporary “pause” as a good thing.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped by only one day compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in eight counties, remained static in one, and rose in three compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
  • The Colorado housing market is demonstrating solid demand, and listing activity is trending higher. I expect that the summer market will be brisk.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Demand appears to be returning, which—combined with historically low interest rates—should lead to a brisk summer housing market. Assuming that the state gets new infection rates under control, I do not see why the housing market wouldn’t perform well this summer. As such, I have moved the needle just a little more in favor of home sellers.

 

Market Data July 22, 2020

Housing Numbers needed for CO

It’s interesting to look at what population growth means for housing. On average, along the Front Range, 2.5 people live in each housing unit.

What that means is 4 housing units are needed for every 10 people who live here. So, for every 1000 new people moving to our area, 400 new housing units are required.

The population of Metro Denver is just under 3,000,000 and the population of Northern Colorado is just over 650,000.

Assuming the Front Range grows in population at 2% per year, that means 60,000 new people in Metro Denver and 13,000 new people in Northern Colorado each year.

To house those people, 24,000 new housing units need to be built per year in Metro Denver and 5,200 in Northern Colorado.

Market DataTroutman Park July 17, 2020

Troutman Park Mid-Year Real Estate Review

Now that we’ve made it through a very unique 1st half of 2020 it’s a good time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has done compared to other recent years. Many felt like property values would decline like so many other investments did through all the Covid-19 adjustments. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see that we’ve actually fared quite well though. Here are the numbers:

2020 Q1-Q2  29 homes sold for $11,357,425. They ranged from $325,000-$507,000 at an average of $391,635

2019 Q1-Q2  33 homes sold for $12,724,583. They ranged from $320,000-$477,000 at an average of $385,593

2018 Q1-Q2  24 homes sold for $8,813,900. They ranged from $290,000-$465,000 at an average of $367,245

2017 Q1-Q2  25 homes sold for $8,594,519. They ranged from $257,000-$443,000 at an average of $343,780

2016 Q1-Q2  27 homes sold for $8,645,100. They ranged from $205,000-$436,000 at an average of $320,188

A noteworthy sale from April this year was 731 Benthaven St which set the all time record high for our neighborhood at $507,000! So as you can see the 1st half of 2020 was actually quite impressive for property values here in Troutman Park, especially in light of everything we’ve all gone through recently.

If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if you ever have questions.

 

EconomicMarket Data July 16, 2020

How has the housing market faired through Covid-19?

On this week’s episode Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, analyzes several aspects of the housing market to see how it has fared over the past 16 weeks amid COVID-19.

EconomicMarket Data July 9, 2020

Chief Economist discusses housing affordability

Matthew Gardner discusses housing affordability and how he believes that despite the impact of COVID-19, affordability issues will remain and may actually get worse as we move forward.

 

 

Market Data June 3, 2020

Mortgage Rate Forecast for the rest of 2020

This week on “Mondays with Matthew”: Now that things have settled down somewhat following the initial impact of COVID-19, Matthew dives into the topic of mortgage rates. Will they go below 3%? Matthew discusses this and the factors that have formed his updated 2020 and 2021 mortgage rate forecast. 

 

Uncategorized May 22, 2020

How Fast are Homes Selling?

Here’s something true about today’s market.  Properties are selling fast.

Compared to one year ago, the number of days it takes for a property to sell is significantly lower.

The industry term is “Days on Market” or DOM.

DOM is way down.

Here is the comparison of May 2020 versus May 2019:

  • Metro Denver down 22%
  • Larimer County down 19%
  • Weld County down 16%

Initially, this may seem counter-intuitive.  How could homes be selling faster in today’s environment?

Here’s the deal.  The buyers and sellers who are active in today’s market are serious.

There really aren’t ‘tire-kicker’ buyers out looking at properties just for the fun of it.

There really aren’t sellers testing the market to ‘see what they can get.’

For the most part, buyers and sellers are on a specific mission and this mindset is showing up in the numbers.

For sellers especially, this is no time to test the market and be overly aggressive on price.

Properties that are priced right and in good condition are selling and often selling fast.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Buyers May 8, 2020

What the Numbers Say

To no one’s surprise, activity in April in terms of closings and new contracts did slow significantly.

Much of this slowing was caused by in person showings not being allowed for most of the month.

(showings are now allowed again by following Safe Showings protocols)

Here’s what the numbers say…

Closed transactions were down compared to April 2019

  • 26% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld)
  • 27% in Metro Denver

New written purchase agreements were down compared to April 2020

  • 48% in Northern Colorado
  • 44% in Metro Denver

So, while activity did slow, there was nothing resembling a “screeching halt” that took place.

While the way property is shown has certainly changed, the market is still very active and we expect activity to increase even more with showings now being allowed again.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.