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Market Data • Mortgage •
January 19, 2021
Economists Prediction on Interest Rates
Where are interest rates headed?
This question was one of many which were addressed during our annual Market Forecast yesterday.
Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, provided insight on rates, prices, inventory and many other fascinating topics.
Matthew’s prediction is for rates to creep up to 3.07% by the end of 2021. They are currently at 2.79%.
The image below shows how his prediction compares with predictions of his economist colleagues.
Please let me know if you have questions or if you would like a recording of the full presentation.
Economic • Market Data •
January 15, 2021
Economists Prediction on Interest Rates
Where are interest rates headed?
This question was one of many which were addressed during our annual Market Forecast yesterday.
Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, provided insight on rates, prices, inventory and many other fascinating topics.
Matthew’s prediction is for rates to creep up to 3.07% by the end of 2021. They are currently at 2.79%.
The image below shows how his prediction compares with predictions of his economist colleagues.
Please let me know if you have questions or if you would like a recording of the full presentation.
Market Data •
December 7, 2020
Real Estate Market Perspective
Here’s a little perspective on the inventory of homes for sale in today’s market…
First we’ll look at Metro Denver:
- The average number of residential listings for sale at this time of year is 15,577
- The highest-ever for this time of year is 29,722 which occurred in 2006
- The number of listings right now is 4,821
- So, inventory in Metro Denver is roughly one-third of the average and 25,000 fewer than the highest-ever.
- DMAR is the source of the stats listed above
Now, Northern Colorado:
- Larimer County has 802 active listings today
- Based on 10 years of data, this is the lowest it has ever been
- The high in Larimer County occurred in 2010 with 2608 listings so today’s inventory is one-third of what it was 10 years ago.
- Inventory today in Weld County is 727 which isn’t the lowest-ever.
- The lowest during the last 10 years was 2017.
The highest was 2010 with 1791 properties so today there are roughly 1,000 fewer properties to choose from.
Home Design •
December 7, 2020
Home Remodeling ROI’s
Americans spend $400 billion per year remodeling their homes.
So, which remodeling investment gives the best return when it comes to resale value?
It should come as no surprise, especially leading up to Thanksgiving, that the best money to spend upgrading your home is in the kitchen.
It’s the place where most homeowners spend most of their waking hours.
According to the research from the National Association of Realtors, it’s where remodelers will see the biggest return on investment.
Here is the ranking of various projects in terms of the value it adds to the home:
- Complete kitchen remodel
- Kitchen upgrade
- HVAC replacement
- Owner’s suite renovation
- Bathroom renovation
- Finishing a basement
- Adding a bathroom
If you have questions about what your property is worth or what the best remodeling value for your home is feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to share what I’ve learned.
Mortgage •
December 7, 2020
How many all time low rates this year?
For the 14th time this year, 30-year mortgage rates set a record and hit an all-time low.
Based on data just released by Freddie Mac, rates are now at 2.71%. Their weekly survey of the 30-year mortgage rate dates back to 1971.
Just one year ago rates were at 3.68%.
So, what does this mean for buyers?
Based on a $400,000 loan, current rates result in a monthly payment that would be $212 less than one year ago.
Economic • Market Data • Uncategorized •
October 29, 2020
Colorado Real Estate Market Update
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
What a difference a quarter makes! Following the massive job losses Colorado experienced starting in February—the state shed over 342,000 positions between February and April—the turnaround has been palpable. Through August, Colorado has recovered 178,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, adding 107,500 jobs over the past three months, an increase of 4.2%. All regions saw a significant number of jobs returning. The most prominent was in the Denver metropolitan service area (MSA), where 78,800 jobs returned in the quarter.
Although employment in all markets is recovering, there is still a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. The recovery in jobs has naturally led the unemployment rate to drop: the state is now at a respectable 6.7%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, all areas continue to see their unemployment rates contract. I would note that the Fort Collins and Boulder MSA unemployment rates are now below 6%. Cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, which is troubling, but rising rates have only slowed—not stopped—the economic recovery. Moreover, it has had no noticeable impact on the state’s housing market.
HOME SALES
- In the third quarter of 2020, 15,065 homes sold. This represents an increase of 20.4% over the third quarter of 2019, and a remarkable 52.7% increase over the second quarter of this year.
- Home sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the second quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.
- Inventory levels remain remarkably low, with the average number of homes for sale down 44.5% from the same period in 2019. Listing activity was 17.8% lower than in the second quarter of 2020.
- Even given the relative lack of inventory, pending sales rose 17.8% from the second quarter, suggesting that closings for the final quarter of the year will be positive.
HOME PRICES
- After taking a pause in the second quarter, home prices rose significantly in the third quarter, with prices up 11.9% year-over
-year to an average of $523,193. Prices were up 7.4% compared to the second quarter of this year. - Interest rates have been dropping. Although I do not see there being room for them to drop much further, they are unlikely to rise significantly. This is allowing prices to rise at above-average rates.
- Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report. El Paso, Clear Creek, and Gilpin counties saw significant price appreciation. All but four counties saw double-digit price gains.
- Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern, as prices are rising at a faster pace than mortgage rates have been dropping.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped one day compared to the third quarter of 2019.
- The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in nine counties, remained static in two, and rose in one compared to the third quarter of 2019.
- It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
- The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and the short length of time it takes to sell a home suggests buyers are competing fiercely for available inventory.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Demand for housing is significant, and sales activity is only limited by the lack of available homes to buy. Prices are rising on the back of very competitive mortgage rates and a job market in recovery. I suggested in my second-quarter report that the area would experience a “brisk summer housing market” and my forecast was accurate. As such, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of home sellers.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Economic • Market Data •
October 28, 2020
Housing and Economic Update
In this episode Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner dives into three of the latest housing market data releases and gives context to their historical significance.
Buyers •
October 27, 2020
The Remote Worker’s Home Buying Process
Image Source: Getty Images
The pandemic’s influences on home life are far-ranging, prompting buyers to look at homeownership through a new lens. Remote work has created a paradigm shift in the wants and needs of homebuyers. Here’s what the remote worker should keep in mind when looking to buy.
Location
The location, location, location cliché has taken on new meaning for homebuyers who work from home. Because remote work gives us the opportunity to work from anywhere, home searches are expanding. Work commute times typically play a significant role in the home buying process; however, many buyers now have the option to view homes further away from their places of work.
Those who previously dreamed of the quiet life, but didn’t want the commute that came with it, are now able to make a move toward a more suburban environment. If you prefer to be away from the hustle and bustle of a downtown area but don’t want to feel isolated, search for properties in the suburbs with active town centers.
The proper space
When COVID-19 began sending workers home in the early months of 2020, homeowners worldwide discovered their varied level of preparedness for remote work. Some had spacious home offices and were able to make the transition easily. Others had to create makeshift workspaces out of living rooms or bedrooms. What we have learned is that a dedicated workspace is paramount to productive remote work, its importance emphasized by the unknown timeline of a return to working in-person in many parts of the country.
Before you buy:
- When searching for homes, understand that a home office situated in an open floor plan is more prone to distraction.
- Look for features such as an additional bedroom, finished basement, or bonus room that offer ample space to create your remote work environment.
- Having a designated space you can associate solely with work will not only drive your focus but helps to balance your home and work life. It allows you to wrap up the workday, leave your home office, and easily transition back into the goings-on of your household.
After you buy:
- Light it up: You’ll want plenty of light in your home office to stay fresh throughout the workweek. If you are next to a window, let in as much natural light as possible. Add in desk and floor lamps to brighten your space.
- Work comfortably: While working at home, it’s easy to sit in one place for hours on end. Shop for comfortable desk chairs that provide proper lumbar support. Explore alternatives to desk chairs like yoga balls and standing desks.
- Personalize: Adding personal touches will help to make your home office feel comfortable. Inspirational quotes, your favorite artwork, and pictures of loved ones are all types of décor that will keep you inspired in your remote work.
For all these considerations and more, talk with your Windermere agent about how your remote work is shifting where you’re looking for a home and what you’re looking for when it’s time to move there.
Troutman Park •
October 21, 2020
Troutman Park Real Estate Market Update Q3 2020
Now that we’ve made it through the 3rd Quarter of 2020 it’s time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has performed compared to other recent years. Earlier in the year many felt like property values would decline like so many other investments did through all the Covid-19 adjustments. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see that we’ve actually fared quite well though.
In Northern Colorado we typically see the market take a little bit of a seasonal breather during the 3rd quarter of the year as families put their home search on pause to get ready for back to school. This year has been a little different though as we saw our neighborhood’s real estate sales accelerate significantly from July through September.
Here are the numbers compared to the 3rd Quarter of recent years:
2020 Q3 – 27 homes sold for $11,109,356. They ranged from $340,200-$480,000 at an average of $411,457
2019 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $7,555,400. They ranged from $300,000-$494,500 at an average of $397,652
2018 Q3 – 17 homes sold for $6,043,650. They ranged from $290,000-$449,500 at an average of $355,508
2017 Q3 – 18 homes sold for $6,290,750. They ranged from $296,000-$429,900 at an average of $349,486
2016 Q3 – 19 homes sold for $6,288,000. They ranged from $260,000-$405,000 at an average of $330,947
It is noteworthy to point out that the 1st two Quarters of 2020 only saw 2 more sales in our neighborhood than the 3rd Quarter!
If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if you ever have questions.
Market Data •
October 6, 2020
Latest NoCO Real Estate Stats
We just completed a review of the September numbers in our market.
Here is the one number that is standing out to us – average price.
Prices are way up over last year. Here are the specific average price increases in each of our markets compared to September 2019:
- Metro Denver = 13.2%
- Larimer County = 16.9%
- Weld County = 7.4%
This change in prices has of course generated questions from our clients.
To help our clients answer questions about prices and other real estate topics, we have set up a private online event with our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.
The event is set for Tuesday from 9:00 to 10:00.
Here is the registration link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6400354351666419467
Matthew will be addressing these questions as well as many others:
- What effect will the election have on the economy and on real estate?
- How long can interest rates stay this low?
- Can prices keep appreciating at their current pace?
This online event is for the clients and friends of Windermere. If you would like more information feel free to reach out!
