Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
Copy Link
Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Update
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado’s economy added 57,100 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 2.1%. The pace of job growth has been moderating and I anticipate this trend will continue as we move through 2020. My current forecast is for Colorado to add around 57,000 new jobs in 2020, a growth rate of 2.1%.
In November, the state unemployment rate was 2.6%, down a full percentage point from the same month in 2018. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago and it is fair to state that all markets are now at full employment.
HOME SALES
- In the final quarter of 2019, 14,279 homes sold, representing an impressive increase of 9.2% compared to the final quarter of 2018. However, sales were 18.7% lower than the third quarter, which I attribute to seasonality. Pending sales — a sign of future closings — dropped 26.7% compared to the third quarter, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2019 are likely to come in below current levels.
- It is notable that all counties contained in this report saw sales growth compared to the same period a year ago.
- Listing activity in the quarter essentially matched the same period in 2018 but the number of homes for sale was 26% lower than in the third quarter of the year. Again, this is a function of seasonality.
- Inventory levels are holding steady, and demand for housing continues to be strong. I would certainly like to see inventory levels rise and I remain modestly hopeful that this will be the case, but likely not until the second half of 2020.
HOME PRICES
Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 4.3% year-over-year to $473,264.- Interest rates remain at very competitive levels and are likely to stay below 4% through 2020. This will allow prices to continue to rise, though I expect more modest price growth if there is an increase in the number of homes for sale.
- Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, where prices rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek, Park, and Gilpin counties, but these are small markets so I don’t believe it’s indicative of an ongoing trend.
- Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose three days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
- The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties other than Clear Creek when compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
- It took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of 11 days compared to the third quarter of this year.
- The Colorado housing market is still performing well and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is not a concern at the present time.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
For the fourth quarter of 2019, I am leaving the needle at the same level as in the third quarter. Listing activity has not grown, and this has led to higher prices in general. Although market time has risen, the market still favors home sellers.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
For further information about the housing market in your area, please feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to talk Real Estate!
To Sell or to Rent? The Perks & Pitfalls of being a Landlord
Electing a full sale or a property management situation is a life-changing decision that shouldn’t be taken lightly. In choosing whether or not becoming a landlord is right for you, there are a number of factors to consider, but primarily they fall into the following three categories: financial analysis, risk, and goals.
The financial analysis is probably the easiest of the three to perform. You will need to assess if you can afford to rent your house. If you consider the likely rental rate, vacancy rate, maintenance, advertising, and management costs, you can arrive at a budget. It is important to both be detailed in your projections and to have enough reserves to cover cash-flow needs if you’re wrong. The vacancy rate will be determined by the price at which you market the property. Price too high and you’re liable to be left vacant. Should you have applicants, they’ll often be a group that for some reason couldn’t compete for more competitively priced homes. Price too low and you don’t achieve the revenue you should. If you want to try for the higher end of an expected range, understand that the cost may be a vacant month. Any way you slice it, it’s difficult to make up for a vacant month.
Consider the other costs renting out your property could accrue. If you have a landscaped or large yard, you will likely need to hire a yard crew to manage the grounds. Other costs could increase when you rent your home, such as homeowner’s insurance and taxes on your property. Depending on tenant turn-over, you may need to paint and deal with maintenance issues more regularly. Renting your home is a decision you need to make with all the financial information in front of you.
If your analysis points to some negative cash-flow, that doesn’t necessarily mean renting is the wrong option. That answer needs to be weighed against the pros and cons of alternatives. For instance, how does that compare to marketing the property at the price that would actually sell? Moreover, you’ll need to perform additional economic guesswork about what the future holds in terms of appreciation, inflation, etc. to arrive at an expectation of how long the cash drain would exist.
Risk is a bit harder to assess. It’s crucial to understand that if you decide to lease out a home, you are going into business, and every business venture has risks. One of the most obvious ways of mitigating the risk is to hire a management company. By hiring professionals, you decrease your risk and time spent managing the property (and tenants) yourself. However, this increases the cost. As you reduce your risk of litigation, you increase your risk of negative cash-flow, and vice versa… it’s a balancing act, and the risk cannot be eliminated; just managed and minimized.
In considering goals, what do you hope to achieve by renting your property? Are you planning on moving back to your home after a period of time? Will your property investment be a part of your long-term financial planning? Are you relocating or just hoping to wait to sell? These are all great reasons to consider renting your home.
Keep in mind that renting your family home can be emotional. Many homeowners love the unique feel of their homes. It is where their children were raised, and they care more about preserving that feel than maximizing revenue. That’s ok, but it needs to be acknowledged and considered when establishing a correct price and preparing a cash flow analysis. Some owners are so attached to their homes that it may be better for them to “tear off the band-aid quickly” and sell. The alternative of slowly watching over the years as the property becomes an investment instead of a home to them may prove to be more painful than any financial benefit can offset.
Before reaching a conclusion, it’s a good idea to familiarize yourself with the landlord-tenant-law specific to your state (and in some cases, separate relevant ordinances in the city and/or county that your property lies within) and to do some market research (i.e. tour other available similar rentals to see if your financial assumptions are in line with the reality of the competition across the street). If you are overwhelmed by this process, or will be living out of the region, seek counsel with a property management professional. Gaining experience the hard way can be costly. With proper preparation, however, the rewards will be worth it.
If you have questions please feel free to reach out, I’m always happy to share what I know and I have some great investment analysis and other resources for home owners.
