Market Data January 10, 2024

How did interest rates effect CO Real Estate?

The numbers are in and it turns out that not even 8% rates could make prices drop in 2023.

When mortgage rates jumped this last year, many people believed that home values would fall as a result.

The fact that prices stayed flat in 2023 even though interest rates doubled between March 2022 and October 2023, shows that values along the Front Range are incredibly resilient.

Here are the 2023 average prices along the Front Range and their change compared to 2022:

Larimer County:  $621,538 / 1%

Weld County:  $527,600 / 1%

Metro Denver:  $679,710 / 0%

EconomicMarket Data August 28, 2022

New Home Trivia

Here’s a trivia question…

The number of new, single-family homes completed in 2022 will most closely resemble which prior year?

If you guessed 1993, you are correct.

Yes, the number of homes built and completed this year is no more than the number from 30 years ago.

In 2022, there will be just over 1 million single family homes constructed in the U.S. which is the same as 1993.

This is much more than the bottom of construction in 2011 which saw just under 500,000 new homes built.

But it is also much less than the top of 2006 which had almost 1.7 million.

Limited new home construction today is preventing anything close to a glut of inventory on the market which, in turn, insulates us from any sort of major price correction.

EconomicMarket Data August 23, 2022

2022 Q2 Real Estate Report

The following analysis of select counties of the Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Colorado continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has slowed, albeit modestly. At the time of writing this report, the state’s employment had increased by 124,600 jobs over the past 12 months, which represents an annual growth rate of 4.6%. The state unemployment rate in May was 3.5%. Regionally, unemployment rates ranged from a low of 2.4% in Boulder to a high of 3.4% in the Grand Junction and Greeley metropolitan areas.

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the second quarter, 12,839 homes sold, a drop of 8% compared to a year ago but 57% higher than in the first quarter of this year.

❱ Year over year, sales rose in only three counties covered by this report and fell in the rest of the region. That said, there was a palpable increase in sales across the board compared to the first quarter of 2022.

❱ The significant jump in sales from the first quarter can likely be attributed to the fact that inventory levels spiked, rising more than 190% from the first quarter.

❱ Pending sales (an indicator of future closings) rose 39% from the first quarter, signifying that the third quarter may show further growth in sales activity.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. The counties with a positive percentage year-over-year change are Clear Creek at 30.8%, El Paso at 3.2%, and Park at 1.7%. Gilpin County had a 0% change. The counties with a negative year-over-year change are Adams at -3.4%, Arapahoe at -4.2%, Jefferson at -5.7%, Weld at -7.4%, Denver at -9%, Larimer at -10.6%, Douglas at -16.7%, and Boulder at -20.2%.

Colorado Home Prices

❱ The average home sale price ($700,369) was 14.1% higher than the same period in 2021. Prices were also 9.8% higher than in the first quarter of this year.

❱ Price growth remains strong even in the face of significantly higher inventory levels and mortgage rates, which is an impressive achievement.

❱ Year over year, prices rose by double digits across all markets except El Paso and Arapahoe counties. Prices rose in all counties other than Gilpin (-10.3%) and Clear Creek (-1%) from the first quarter.

❱ With the increase in mortgage rates and the number of homes for sale, I have started to watch list prices more closely. Compared to the first quarter, median list prices are lower in 9 of the 12 counties included in this report. Although it’s too early to say whether this is a trend we should be worried about, I will be watching how prices move during the summer, as it may be an indicator that the market is starting to soften.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Colorado. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. El Paso and Arapahoe Counties are the only counties with a percentage change in the 7% to 10.9% range, Boulder and Gilpin counties are in the 11% to 14.9% change range, Larimer, Weld, Adams, Park, Jefferson, and Douglas are in the 15% to 18.9% change range, Denver County is in the 19% to 22.9% change range, and Clear Creek County is the sole county in the 23% + change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Clear Creek County tops the list at 23.7%, followed by Denver at 22.3%, Larimer at 18.6%, Douglas at 16.4%, Park at 16.2%, Weld at 15.5%, Adams at 15.2%, Jefferson at 15.1%, Gilpin at 14.2%, Boulder at 11.3%, Arapahoe at 9.9%, and finally El Paso at 7.9%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Colorado Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report fell eight days compared to the same period in 2021.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in six counties, remained static in three, and rose in the other three compared to the same quarter a year ago.

❱ It took an average of only 10 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 15 days compared to the first quarter of the year.

❱ Compared to the first quarter of 2022, average market time fell across the board, with significant drops in Gilpin (-41 days), Park (-25 days), and Clear Creek (-23 days) counties.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado for Q2 2022. Arapahoe, Adams, and Jefferson Counties have the lowest DOM at 7, followed by Denver, Douglas, and Clear Creek at 8, El Paso at 9, Larimer at 10, Weld and Boulder at 11, Gilpin at 12, and Park at 17.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The Colorado economy remains robust and continues to grow. As it stands today, I anticipate income growth here will continue to outpace the nation. The 221,000 current job openings in the state are evidence of significant employer demand, which will lead to higher wages. Housing demand is still remarkably strong, even in light of the rapid increase in the number of homes for sale and rising financing costs.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium seller's market in Colorado for Q2 2022.

As mentioned earlier, I will be watching movement in list prices through the summer as they are a leading indicator in respect to the health of the market. Although we saw some softening in the pace of regional list price growth during second quarter and median list prices pulling back in some markets, it is too early to state that this is a pattern. As such, I am leaving the needle in the same position as the first quarter. The growing number of homes for sale and lower list prices in some markets should favor buyers, but this is offset for the time being by solid demand.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market Data May 2, 2022

Expert Opinion

This week, take a listen to Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist as he discusses the current state of the housing market.​​​​​​​

He takes a deep dive into interest rates, price appreciation and where the market is headed.

You can watch his video HERE

Market Data August 17, 2021

$100k, $90k & $60k

As I’m sure you’ve probably noticed, housing prices have gone up quite a bit along Colorado’s Front Range.

Low interest rates, strong demand, lower supply, and a healthy local economy are all contributing to increased prices.

It may interest you to see exactly how much prices have increased since one year ago in the markets where we have the most activity.

Over the last year, Weld County has increased roughly $100,000, Metro Denver $90,000 and Larimer County $60,000.

Specifically, here are the average prices one year ago vs. today:

  • Weld County = $426,000 vs. $523,000
  • Metro Denver = $523,000 vs. $612,000
  • Larimer County = $532,000 vs. $592,000

With that being said Real Estate can still be hyper local, sometimes right down to the block. If you’re ever curious about what’s going on in your neighborhood just let me know. I’m always happy to share my insight.

 

Market Data April 6, 2021

Interest Rate Predicition!?!

Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner has made his new mortgage interest rate prediction for 2021.

 

You can see his breakdown of interest rates and other economic factors by clicking on the image below and watching his newest video.

 

By the end of the year he predicts rates will rise to 3.63%.  By the end of the 3rd quarter, he sees rates at 3.48%.

 

This would be a 0.5% increase by year-end compared to today.

 

What this would mean for home buyers is a 5% higher monthly payment compared to today.

Market DataTroutman Park February 10, 2021

Troutman Park 2020 Real Estate Year in Review

All the data from 2020 is in and it’s time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate Market has performed compared to other recent years.

Back in March last year many felt like property values would decline like many other investments did through all the Covid-19 adjustments. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see that we’ve actually fared quite well though.

 

Here are the numbers compared to other recent years:

2020 – 70 homes sold for $28,164,381. They ranged from $331,000-$507,000 at an average of $402,348

2019 – 72 homes sold for $27,749,783. They ranged from $300,000-$505,000 at an average of $385,413

2018 – 51 homes sold for $18,681,050. They ranged from $286,500-$480,000 at an average of $366,295

2017 – 56 homes sold for $19,372,269. They ranged from $257,500-$443,000 at an average of $345,933

2016 – 55 homes sold for $17,891,500. They ranged from $205,000-$436,000 at an average of $325,300

Since 2016 the average price of Troutman Park’s Real Estate has increased by almost 24%

Right now Northern Colorado is seeing serious demand for housing while supply is at an all time low which is resulting in competing offers for many properties and accelerating our appreciation rate.

To give you an idea of where we’re at Fort Collins has 91 homes on the market between $350,000-$500,000 and 78 of those are under contract leaving only 13 available for buyers to choose from (as of 2/10/2021).

Right now in all of Fort Collins there is a total of 457 residential properties that are on the market and 330 of those (72%) are under contract. The average price of those homes that are under contract is $519,884.

With interest rates around 3% buyers are able to justify paying premiums for homes that are move in ready. That combined with all of people who have become frustrated with big city living conditions/restrictions over the last year who are looking to relocate to areas like Northern Colorado means there is tremendous opportunity for anyone in our area that is thinking about selling a home this year!

If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if there is any way I can be of assistance.

EconomicMarket DataUncategorized October 29, 2020

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

Housing Market

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

What a difference a quarter makes! Following the massive job losses Colorado experienced starting in February—the state shed over 342,000 positions between February and April—the turnaround has been palpable. Through August, Colorado has recovered 178,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, adding 107,500 jobs over the past three months, an increase of 4.2%. All regions saw a significant number of jobs returning. The most prominent was in the Denver metropolitan service area (MSA), where 78,800 jobs returned in the quarter.

Although employment in all markets is recovering, there is still a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. The recovery in jobs has naturally led the unemployment rate to drop: the state is now at a respectable 6.7%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, all areas continue to see their unemployment rates contract. I would note that the Fort Collins and Boulder MSA unemployment rates are now below 6%. Cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, which is troubling, but rising rates have only slowed—not stopped—the economic recovery. Moreover, it has had no noticeable impact on the state’s housing market.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the third quarter of 2020, 15,065 homes sold. This represents an increase of 20.4% over the third quarter of 2019, and a remarkable 52.7% increase over the second quarter of this year.
  • Home sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the second quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.
  • Inventory levels remain remarkably low, with the average number of homes for sale down 44.5% from the same period in 2019. Listing activity was 17.8% lower than in the second quarter of 2020.
  • Even given the relative lack of inventory, pending sales rose 17.8% from the second quarter, suggesting that closings for the final quarter of the year will be positive.

 

HOME PRICES

  • After taking a pause in the second quarter, home prices rose significantly in the third quarter, with prices up 11.9% year-over-year to an average of $523,193. Prices were up 7.4% compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Interest rates have been dropping. Although I do not see there being room for them to drop much further, they are unlikely to rise significantly. This is allowing prices to rise at above-average rates.
  • Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report. El Paso, Clear Creek, and Gilpin counties saw significant price appreciation. All but four counties saw double-digit price gains.
  • Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern, as prices are rising at a faster pace than mortgage rates have been dropping.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped one day compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in nine counties, remained static in two, and rose in one compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
  • The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and the short length of time it takes to sell a home suggests buyers are competing fiercely for available inventory.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Demand for housing is significant, and sales activity is only limited by the lack of available homes to buy. Prices are rising on the back of very competitive mortgage rates and a job market in recovery. I suggested in my second-quarter report that the area would experience a “brisk summer housing market” and my forecast was accurate. As such, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of home sellers.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Home Design July 16, 2020

Setting Up your Home Gym

Image Source: Canva

 

As the stay-at-home hours add up, setting up a home gym is not only physically beneficial, but can bring some added mental wellness to the new normal many of us find ourselves in. In comparison to a gym membership, even with the up-front investment of purchasing equipment, an at-home gym can deliver savings in the long run. With far-ranging fitness gear options online, there are more ways to save than ever before.

 

Location, location, location

 

Before the lunges, pushups, and weightlifting, the first step in setting up your at-home gym is deciding where to build it. You’ll want plenty of room for the activities and workouts you have in mind. Rooms with low ceilings or narrow walls are not well-suited for a gym. They will limit your ability to perform any kinds of jumping exercises or workouts with wide ranging movements. This space is dedicated to physical activity and the environment should support that. If extra space is hard to come by in your home, consider taking your gym outdoors to a patio, multipurpose space, or other less commonly used area.

 

A space with level, hard flooring, like wood, laminate, or tile, is the best fit for your gym, especially if you plan on establishing a workout plan based around lifting or cardio. Having spatial awareness at all times is important while working out, so you’ll want plenty of light in your home gym. Mirrors are a common fixture in gyms, consider adding one to your wall to analyze your technique.

 

Gear up

 

  • Strength training: Simple workout tools like kettlebells and dumbbells allow you to perform a variety of workouts without taking up much space. Kettlebells are a great tool for incorporating cardio workouts with added weight. Dumbbells at a lower weight are better for toning exercises, while those at heavier weights are better for low-repetition, bulk exercises.
  • Cardio training: Smaller workout tools such as jump ropes, wrist and ankle weights will add intensity to your cardio workouts. Yoga mats provide proper support while performing core exercises or other body weight circuit workouts during your cardio sessions.
  • Large equipment: To get the most out of large workout equipment like treadmills, stair climbers, and bikes in your home gym, plan for them to be a significant part of your workouts.
  • Additional: Applying a layer of gym flooring will help prevent damage and provide added support. If you prefer music and/or video to accompany your workouts, add speakers and a TV to get the motivational juices flowing.

 

Establish a routine

 

Your home gym is no good if it gets no use. With zero commute time to account for, arrange a workout routine that suits your daily schedule. Even if you have 30 minutes, getting into a routine of working out is the key to building up your healthy lifestyle in this new normal of home life.

 

Once your home gym is set up, it can be either your individual fitness sanctuary or an opportunity to work out with others. Invite a friend to exercise via video chat and schedule times to feel the burn together. With more virtual fitness classes available now than ever, surf the web to find the classes that best fit your schedule and desired workout intensity.

Market Data April 18, 2020

Economist Q&A Webinar (Wed 4/22)

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On Wednesday April 22nd you are invited to a special online event with Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

He will be giving his insights into the U.S. economy and what that means for real estate along the Front Range of Colorado.

You will hear the answers to the biggest questions we are hearing from clients now like “do you think housing prices will crash?”

This event is exclusively for clients and friends of Windermere Real Estate. To receive the registration link simply comment on this blog or reach out to your Windermere real estate broker.

Many of you have heard Matthew speak at our Market Forecast events we hold each year in January. He is famous for making complex economic dynamics very simple to understand.

You will get useful and valuable information which will give you clarity about where the market is headed and when we can expect the economy to improve.

For example Matthew predicts unemployment to hit 15% by the end of June, but then to improve to 8% by year-end and 6% by this time next year.

Again, if you would like the link just comment on this blog or reach out to your Windermere broker.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Shelter in Place and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are working at home, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.