Chief Economists Economic Update

Event Invitation

Exclusive Invitation!!!

Tune in on Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 9:00am to meet with Matthew Gardner, Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist LIVE and get your chance to ask him questions. He’ll be discussing the housing market, employment and the effects of COVID-19 on the local and national economy.

As one of the only real estate companies in the US that has a Chief Economist on staff, we have exclusive insights into the housing market, economy and government happenings. This is a one of a kind event for clients and friends of Windermere Real Estate in Colorado.

To sign up, please register at: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6400354351666419467

(If you can’t attend live, you can register to automatically get the recording.) If you miss it and would like me to send you a copy afterwards feel free to reach out!


Posted on October 6, 2020 at 3:17 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Latest NoCO Real Estate Stats

Wooden Bridge Through Autumn Woods

We just completed a review of the September numbers in our market.

Here is the one number that is standing out to us – average price.

Prices are way up over last year.  Here are the specific average price increases in each of our markets compared to September 2019:

  • Metro Denver = 13.2%
  • Larimer County = 16.9%
  • Weld County = 7.4%

This change in prices has of course generated questions from our clients.

To help our clients answer questions about prices and other real estate topics, we have set up a private online event with our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

The event is set for Tuesday from 9:00 to 10:00.

Here is the registration link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6400354351666419467

Matthew will be addressing these questions as well as many others:

  • What effect will the election have on the economy and on real estate?
  • How long can interest rates stay this low?
  • Can prices keep appreciating at their current pace?

This online event is for the clients and friends of Windermere.  If you would like more information feel free to reach out!


Posted on October 6, 2020 at 3:13 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

COVID-19 had significant negative impacts on employment in Colorado. The pandemic caused the loss of over 342,000 jobs in March and April as unemployment rose to 12.2%. For comparison, peak unemployment following the Great Recession was 8.9%. However, it appears as if the massive contraction in employment is behind us (at least for now). Employment in Colorado rose in May by 68,800 jobs, a monthly increase of 2.8%, pushing the unemployment rate down to 10.2%. Regionally, the Denver metro area added 18,600 jobs in May and the Fort Collins metro area added 3,500 jobs. It is certainly too early to say that we are out of the woods, but we seem to be headed in a positive direction. Colorado’s COVID-19 infection rates started increasing again in June, which could slow down the economic recovery. However, I do not believe that it is likely to have any substantial impact on the housing market.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the second quarter of 2020, 9,867 homes sold. This represents a drop of 20.7% compared to the second quarter of 2019, but sales were 7.4% higher than in the first quarter of this year.
  • Sales dropped across all markets compared to the second quarter of 2019. I do not find this concerning as the drop can be attributed to limited supply and COVID-19.
  • Inventory levels remain tight, with the average number of homes for sale in the quarter down 21.3% from the same period in 2019. However, listings were up an impressive 15.6% over the first quarter of 2020.
  • I was pleased to see total pending sales in the quarter increase 16.3% compared to the first quarter, suggesting closing data for the third quarter will be better than we are currently experiencing.

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices held steady compared to the second quarter of 2019 at an average of $480,831. Prices were up 0.7% compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • Interest rates remain at very low levels and will stay in the low 3% range for the balance of the year, if not longer. This can allow prices to pick back up.
  • Price growth across the region was varied. Seven counties saw price growth and five experienced a drop in average sale price. Clear Creek County again saw prices rise substantially. However, as you are likely aware, it is a very small market and subject to wild swings. Prices dropped most in the equally small Gilpin County.
  • I am still watching affordability in many Colorado markets and will take this temporary “pause” as a good thing.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped by only one day compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in eight counties, remained static in one, and rose in three compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
  • The Colorado housing market is demonstrating solid demand, and listing activity is trending higher. I expect that the summer market will be brisk.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Demand appears to be returning, which—combined with historically low interest rates—should lead to a brisk summer housing market. Assuming that the state gets new infection rates under control, I do not see why the housing market wouldn’t perform well this summer. As such, I have moved the needle just a little more in favor of home sellers.

 


Posted on September 29, 2020 at 2:58 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Consumer Confidence in Housing Survey

This week Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, dives into the most recent National Housing Survey results which tell us a lot about consumer confidence both pre- and post-COVID and whether or not they feel this is a good time to buy or sell a home. The results might surprise you.


Posted on July 22, 2020 at 6:58 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Economic, Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Housing Numbers needed for CO

It’s interesting to look at what population growth means for housing. On average, along the Front Range, 2.5 people live in each housing unit.

What that means is 4 housing units are needed for every 10 people who live here. So, for every 1000 new people moving to our area, 400 new housing units are required.

The population of Metro Denver is just under 3,000,000 and the population of Northern Colorado is just over 650,000.

Assuming the Front Range grows in population at 2% per year, that means 60,000 new people in Metro Denver and 13,000 new people in Northern Colorado each year.

To house those people, 24,000 new housing units need to be built per year in Metro Denver and 5,200 in Northern Colorado.


Posted on July 22, 2020 at 6:51 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Troutman Park Mid-Year Real Estate Review

Now that we’ve made it through a very unique 1st half of 2020 it’s a good time to look back and see how Troutman Park’s Real Estate market has done compared to other recent years. Many felt like property values would decline like so many other investments did through all the Covid-19 adjustments. If you own a home in the Troutman Park area you’ll probably be happy to see that we’ve actually fared quite well though. Here are the numbers:

2020 Q1-Q2  29 homes sold for $11,357,425. They ranged from $325,000-$507,000 at an average of $391,635

2019 Q1-Q2  33 homes sold for $12,724,583. They ranged from $320,000-$477,000 at an average of $385,593

2018 Q1-Q2  24 homes sold for $8,813,900. They ranged from $290,000-$465,000 at an average of $367,245

2017 Q1-Q2  25 homes sold for $8,594,519. They ranged from $257,000-$443,000 at an average of $343,780

2016 Q1-Q2  27 homes sold for $8,645,100. They ranged from $205,000-$436,000 at an average of $320,188

A noteworthy sale from April this year was 731 Benthaven St which set the all time record high for our neighborhood at $507,000! So as you can see the 1st half of 2020 was actually quite impressive for property values here in Troutman Park, especially in light of everything we’ve all gone through recently.

If you have questions about Real Estate I’m always happy to share what I know. I grew up here in Fort Collins, I’ve worked in Real Estate since 2002 and live right here in Troutman Park so feel free to reach out if you ever have questions.

 


Posted on July 17, 2020 at 2:57 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data, Troutman Park | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

How has the housing market faired through Covid-19?

On this week’s episode Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, analyzes several aspects of the housing market to see how it has fared over the past 16 weeks amid COVID-19.


Posted on July 16, 2020 at 5:48 pm
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Economic, Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

More Homes Needed to Balance Market

iStock-177709534.jpg

Compared to exactly one year ago, the supply of homes is down:

  • 32.6% in Metro Denver
  • 25.1% in Northern Colorado

An interesting and useful measurement we track is months of inventory.  This stat tells how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.

Of course, months of supply can vary greatly by price range and location.  However, this stat does a good job of explaining the overall state of the market.

Specifically, months of supply tells us if the market is in balance.

A ‘balanced’ market is when there is 4 to 6 months of supply.  A buyers market occurs when the stat is higher than this range.  A sellers market occurs when it is lower.

The months of supply looks like this in our market:

  • 1.0 months in Metro Denver
  • 1.3 months in Northern Colorado

What this means is our markets are significantly under-supplied and more homes are needed to meet demand. With that being the case you can expect that overall property values will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.


Posted on July 10, 2020 at 8:05 pm
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Chief Economist discusses housing affordability

Matthew Gardner discusses housing affordability and how he believes that despite the impact of COVID-19, affordability issues will remain and may actually get worse as we move forward.

 

 


Posted on July 9, 2020 at 3:48 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Economic, Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Chief Economist’s Housing & Economic Update

On this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew”, Matthew Gardner discusses what is needed to motivate more Millennials to buy and the important role they play in the long-term health of the US housing market.


Posted on July 9, 2020 at 3:41 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Economic, Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,