What causes Real Estate Bubbles to Burst?

Every so often we will hear a concern that another housing bubble is forming.

To help answer that question it’s valuable to look at the reasons that caused the last one.

There were three main drivers of the bubble that burst in 2008:

  1. Easy Credit – loans were very easy to attain
  2. Over-Leverage – people were using their homes at ATM’s
  3. Over-Supply – too many new homes were being built

Now, let’s compare that to today:

  1. Stricter Credit – the average home buyer today has a FICO score of 755
  2. High Equity – collectively, U.S. homeowners have $19 Trillion of equity in their homes and collective mortgage debt has not increased for 13 years
  3. Under-Supply – today we are building only two-thirds of the new homes being built in 2004 yet the population is much higher

Given this healthy information, we don’t see another housing bubble forming right now.

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.


Posted on February 24, 2020 at 4:18 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

All time high for Troutman Park!?!

The home at 731 Benthaven St is now listed for sale at $515,000 and there is a good chance it will set the all time high price for the Troutman Park neighborhood!

Our community just saw it’s first property sell for more $500,000 when the home that was flipped at 3807 Benthaven sold for $505,000 in December 2019.

If you’ve seen both these homes then you might be intrigued with the recent price drop at 731 Benthaven (was previously $529,500).

With the freshly remodeled kitchen, baths and interior paint this home shows very well. The professionally finished basement features timbered window wells, a sweet rec room and a 5th bedroom that would be a teenagers dream. Outside this home has a great deck for bbq’s in a yard that’s over a 1/4 acre and adjacent to open space.

It’s also 135% of the finished square footage that 3807 Benthaven had and it’s been remodeled at a much higher level of quality and craftsmanship.

If you or someone you know are interested in taking a look at this home just let me know and I’ll be happy to set that up.

The home at 731 Benthaven St is listed for sale by Kevin Barrier of Cobblestone Realty.

 


Posted on February 19, 2020 at 4:12 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Troutman Park, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , ,

NoCo Real Estate Stats

Here are some Northern Colorado Real Estate stats I think you’ll like:

  • Prices are up 3.5% compared to last year
  • Inventory is up 10% which means there is more selection for buyers
  • We just had the most active January in terms of closings in over 10 years
  • Well over 13,000 residential properties representing $5.4 Billion of volume has sold in the last 12 months

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.


Posted on February 17, 2020 at 4:41 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Buyers, Sellers | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Vacation Home or Income-Producing Investment

Whether you’re a skier who loves the mountain slopes of Colorado, a lover of the beaches of Southern California, or a potential retiree seeking to escape the snow-laden Northeast for the wide-open, sunny lands of Arizona, there are homes available to meet a wide range of budgets. The biggest decision a potential second homeowner must make is whether they are going to solely own their vacation home or turn it into a vacation rental. Here are the advantages and disadvantages to both options:

 

Investing in vacation rentals

  • Pros:
    • A good vacation rental property generally provides a healthy rental revenue which could potentially cover mortgage payments while also generating healthy additional profit.
    • Using an online short-term rental service like Airbnb makes it convenient to manage your rental property. Their website interface makes pricing, marketing, and communication with potential guests quite straightforward and easy. Airbnb will also oversee the billing process for you.
    • You may qualify for federal tax breaks and deductions related to your investment property. Everything from professional fees or commissions – including property management services- to cleaning and maintenance are potential tax write-offs.
  • Cons:
    • Vacation rentals can be costly to manage, both in terms of time and money. These properties may require seasonal upkeep and special maintenance considerations. You may even incur costs to maintain or monitor the property even when it’s not actively being utilized.
    • Vacation rental properties are particularly sensitive to seasonal fluctuations and economic downturns, which could leave you financially exposed if you suffer a lack of booking revenue.
    • Many states and cities are cracking down on short-term rental services. In California, for example, the fight has been primarily local, reaching a fever pitch in the San Francisco Bay Area. Increasingly state and local municipalities are seeking to reign in short-term vacation rentals, which could put a damper on potential revenue from these properties.
    • You may experience higher renovation and repair costs on a short-term rental. Most travelers expect the latest appliances and furnishings, so you will have to update every few years. Unfortunately, short-term renters are less likely to report any necessary repairs and guests are far less likely to treat the property with respect since there’s no sense of ownership or obligation.

 

Owning a vacation home

  • Pros:
    • Long-term profits: While assets fluctuate in value in the short term, vacation properties are more likely to retain their value and appreciate because they are located in popular areas with a geographically limited supply.
    • Familiarity: Returning to the same place time and after time can be comforting as you become familiar and comfortable with the location. It allows you the freedom to be yourself and the opportunity to expand long-term friendships with residents.
    • Convenience: The ability to conveniently store items that are used exclusively at the second home simplifies travel and packing.
    • Retirement head starts: Though we may love where we work and live, every place has its drawbacks. A common goal of retirement is to have a place to retreat for the times of the year we dislike the most at our main residence. Locating and buying a second home prior to retirement enables you to experience the benefits of a refuge before actual retirement, a time to correct and amend your plans if the reality is different than the dream.
  • Cons:
    • Initial purchase costs: Most people have higher expectations for a property that they intend to own, rather than to rent. These expectations can translate into high prices.
    • Home maintenance: As the homeowner, you are responsible for all home maintenance work.
    • Travel time: A second home will be located hours from your primary residence, requiring either long auto trips or airline flights.
    • Inflexibility: If you are paying a significant amount of money each month for a second home, you may feel that you need to constantly visit the property to justify your investment.

Posted on February 17, 2020 at 4:08 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Buyers, Investors | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Kickstarting a Kitchen Remodel

Ask a homeowner which room they would most like to improve, and most will point to the kitchen – the starting point for every meal and the heart of the home.

Ask those same people why they don’t move forward with a kitchen remodel, and many will say the project seems so overwhelming they don’t know where to start. If your kitchen needs an upgrade, here are some step-by-step suggestions to get you started.

 

Gather your thoughts

The steps that follow will all progress much easier if you take time beforehand to form a strong opinion about the desired look and layout of your new kitchen.

 

Start by reviewing kitchen magazines and photo-heavy kitchen remodeling guides and/or websites. Compiling clippings and printouts in a notebook helps you refine your vision. Clip or print the photos that capture your imagination, add notes, and draw circles and arrows around the things you like most.

 

Once you have a clearer vision of what you want, search online for better examples and new solutions, if necessary. If you live with a significant other, share your ideas with them and don’t allow yourself to become too committed before getting buy-in from them. Contractors and sales associates will expect a unified front.

 

Focus on the flow

Another major factor you’ll want to consider is how your new kitchen will be used, and by whom:

 

  • Do you want to cook with others?
  • Do you want family and guests to gather in the space while you cook?
  • Do you want to serve meals in the kitchen?
  • Do you want to display your dishware?
  • Where would you like things stored for maximum efficiency?

 

Imagine yourself happily cooking and entertaining in your new kitchen, then note the key elements necessary to make those dreams a reality. Having a list of your desired kitchen features and storage needs will help ensure your plan meets your vision.

 

Determine your budget

According to the annual Remodeling Magazine survey of costs, a “midrange,” “minor” kitchen remodel will cost homeowners living on the West Coast about $23,000. Those same folks can expect to pay about $70,000 for a midrange “major” kitchen remodel. Determine what you can afford before you start work to ensure that your vision is within reach, or to help prioritize what’s most critical.

 

What to do with the cabinets

Replacing the cabinets is one of the most expensive improvements you can make in a kitchen remodel (typically consuming 20 to 40 percent of the overall budget, according to Architectural Digest).

 

Consider refacing instead. This can include one of the following: 1) Installing completely new cabinet doors and drawer fronts or 2) installing new wood or laminate veneer over the existing cabinet and drawer fronts or 3) simply refinishing the existing cabinet and drawer fronts.
Shopping for contractors

The contractor you choose will determine much of the cost, the pace of your project, the amount of disruption, the final results, and your level of satisfaction. So be thorough in your search:

 

  • Ask friends and family for referrals and advice.
  • Interview at least three of the leading prospects in-person.
  • Ask to see samples of past work.
  • Look for someone who complements your operating style (similar personality and communication style).
  • Once you’ve narrowed your choice to one or two, ask to speak with a few past clients.

 

You’ll be tempted to latch onto the first contractor who gets rave reviews from a friend or family member. But remember: You and your project are unique, and it’s worth the time and effort to be rigorous in your search.

 

Selecting appliances

If you’re planning to replace appliances, here are three factors you’ll want to consider:

 

Finish – Stainless steel is still the most popular option, but beware: smudges, fingerprints, water spots, and streaks will be obvious. Black stainless steel has a warmer feel and is better at hiding spots.

 

Extended warranty – According to Consumer Reports, extended warranties are hardly ever worth it because today’s appliances are so reliable. And if something does fail, it’s often less expensive to just pay for the repair.

 

Unbiased testing and reviews – Before making an appliance purchase, use the information resources available through Consumer Reports.

 

A final note

Moving walls and extending your home’s foundation are both very expensive options. If your kitchen plans call for these architectural renovations, perhaps you’ve outgrown your home and need something larger (with an already-improved kitchen).


Posted on February 5, 2020 at 12:34 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Home Maintenance | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Housing Affordability Research

Housing affordability is a hot topic especially after the strong price appreciation that has occurred in our market over the last 7 years.

Here’s some interesting research on affordability…

Each quarter the National Association of Home Builders measures affordability in hundreds of markets across the Country.

Their method is to count the number of homes in a market that could be purchased with that particular market’s median income.

For example, San Francisco is the least-affordable market where only 8.4% of the homes could be purchased with their median income.

The most-affordable is Monroe, Michigan where 95.3% of the homes could be purchased with their median income.

Guess where all of the 10 least-affordable markets are.  California!

Guess where almost all of the 10 most-affordable markets are.  The rust belt (cities in Michigan, Ohio, upstate New York, etc.)

The U.S. average is 63.6%.

Metro Denver comes in at 55.3% and Northern Colorado at 54.5%.

So, roughly half of the homes in our market could be purchased with our local median income.

 


Posted on February 2, 2020 at 7:21 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Buyers, Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy added 57,100 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 2.1%. The pace of job growth has been moderating and I anticipate this trend will continue as we move through 2020. My current forecast is for Colorado to add around 57,000 new jobs in 2020, a growth rate of 2.1%.

In November, the state unemployment rate was 2.6%, down a full percentage point from the same month in 2018. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago and it is fair to state that all markets are now at full employment.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the final quarter of 2019, 14,279 homes sold, representing an impressive increase of 9.2% compared to the final quarter of 2018. However, sales were 18.7% lower than the third quarter, which I attribute to seasonality. Pending sales — a sign of future closings — dropped 26.7% compared to the third quarter, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2019 are likely to come in below current levels.
  • It is notable that all counties contained in this report saw sales growth compared to the same period a year ago.
  • Listing activity in the quarter essentially matched the same period in 2018 but the number of homes for sale was 26% lower than in the third quarter of the year. Again, this is a function of seasonality.
  • Inventory levels are holding steady, and demand for housing continues to be strong. I would certainly like to see inventory levels rise and I remain modestly hopeful that this will be the case, but likely not until the second half of 2020.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 4.3% year-over-year to $473,264.
  • Interest rates remain at very competitive levels and are likely to stay below 4% through 2020. This will allow prices to continue to rise, though I expect more modest price growth if there is an increase in the number of homes for sale.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, where prices rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek, Park, and Gilpin counties, but these are small markets so I don’t believe it’s indicative of an ongoing trend.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose three days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties other than Clear Creek when compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • It took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of 11 days compared to the third quarter of this year.
  • The Colorado housing market is still performing well and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is not a concern at the present time.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2019, I am leaving the needle at the same level as in the third quarter. Listing activity has not grown, and this has led to higher prices in general. Although market time has risen, the market still favors home sellers.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

For further information about the housing market in your area, please feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to talk Real Estate!


Posted on January 29, 2020 at 3:05 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Fort Collins Real Estate, Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

To Buy New or Old, That is the Question

We are often asked, “Which is the better buy, a newer or older home?” Our answer: It all depends on your needs and personal preferences. We decided to put together a list of the six biggest differences between newer and older homes:

 

The neighborhood

Surprisingly, one of the biggest factors in choosing a new home isn’t the property itself, but rather the surrounding neighborhood. While new homes occasionally spring up in established communities, most are built in new developments. The settings are quite different, each with their own unique benefits.

Older neighborhoods often feature tree-lined streets; larger property lots; a wide array of architectural styles; easy walking access to mass transportation, restaurants and local shops; and more established relationships among neighbors.

New developments are better known for controlled development; HOA’s or Metro Districs, fewer above ground utilities and often newer public facilities (schools, libraries, pools, etc.). There are typically more children in newer communities, as well.

Consider your daily work commute, too. While not always true, older neighborhoods tend to be closer to major employment centers, mass transportation and multiple car routes (neighborhood arterials, highways and freeways).

 

Design and layout

If you like VictorianCraftsman or Cape Cod style homes, it used to be that you would have to buy an older home from the appropriate era. But with new-home builders now offering modern takes on those classic designs, that’s no longer the case. There are even modern log homes available.

Have you given much thought to your floor plans? If you have your heart set on a family room, an entertainment kitchen, a home office and walk-in closets, you’ll likely want to buy a newer home—or plan to do some heavy remodeling of an older home. Unless they’ve already been remodeled, most older homes feature more basic layouts.

If you have a specific home décor style in mind, you’ll want to take that into consideration, as well. Professional designers say it’s best if the style and era of your furnishings match the style and era of your house. But if you are willing to adapt, then the options are wide open.

 

Materials and Craftsmanship

Homes built before material and labor costs spiked in the late 1950s have a reputation for higher-grade lumber and old-world craftsmanship (hardwood floors, old-growth timber supports, ornate siding, artistic molding, etc.).

However, newer homes have the benefit of modern materials and more advanced building codes (copper or polyurethane plumbing, better insulation, double-pane windows, modern electrical wiring, earthquake/ windstorm supports, etc.).

 

Current Condition

The condition of a home for sale is always a top consideration for any buyer. However, age is a factor here, as well. For example, if the exterior of a newer home needs repainting, it’s a relatively easy task to determine the cost.  But if it’s a home built before the 1970s, you have to also consider the fact that the underlying paint is most likely lead-based, and that the wood siding may have rot or other structural issues that need to be addressed before it can be re-coated.

On the flip side, the mechanicals in older homes (lights, heating systems, sump pump, etc.) tend to be better built and last longer.

 

Outdoor Space

One of the great things about older homes is that they usually come with mature trees and bushes already in place. Buyers of new homes may have to wait years for ornamental trees, fruit trees, roses, ferns, cacti and other long-term vegetation to fill in a yard, create shade, provide privacy, and develop into an inviting outdoor space. However, maybe you’re one of the many homeowners who prefer the wide-open, low-maintenance benefits of a lightly planted yard.

 

Car Considerations

Like it or not, most of us are extremely dependent on our cars for daily transportation. And here again, you’ll find a big difference between newer and older homes. Newer homes almost always feature ample off-street parking: usually a two-car garage and a wide driveway. An older home, depending on just how old it is, may not offer a garage—and if it does, there’s often only enough space for one car. For people who don’t feel comfortable leaving their car on the street, this alone can be a determining factor.

 

Finalizing Your Decision

While the differences between older and newer homes are striking, there’s certainly no right or wrong answer. It is a matter of personal taste, and what is available in your desired area. To quickly determine which direction your taste trends, use the information above to make a list of your most desired features, then categorize those according to the type of house in which they’re most likely to be found. The results can often be telling.

If you have questions about newer versus older homes, or are looking for an agent in your area we have professionals that can help you. Contact us here.


Posted on January 28, 2020 at 3:47 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Buyers | Tagged , , , , , ,

Interest Rate Forecast

Here is our interest rate Forecast for the next year.

Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, predicts that rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will stay between 3.8% and 3.9% for 2020.

He doesn’t see rates going above 4.0% until at least the first quarter of 2021.

This is obviously great news for buyers as their payments will stay much lower as compared to having a rate at the long-term average of 7.5%.

If you would like to see the slides from Matthew Gardner’s Forecast presentation, we would be happy to get those in your hands.  Just let us know if we can help!


Posted on January 24, 2020 at 9:03 pm
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data, Mortgage | Tagged , , , , , ,

The 12 Facts of Real Estate

  • 1 is the ranking Colorado owns for long-term home price appreciation versus all other states
  • 2.6% unemployment rate in Colorado right now
  • 3.73% mortgage rate for a 30-year mortgage which is about half of the long term average
  • 4.7% apartment vacancy rate in Metro Denver, the lowest since 2015
  • 5.5% is the long-term average for yearly home price appreciation along the Front Range
  • 6,000,000 live in Colorado
  • 7,000 residential properties are for sale in Metro Denver right now and the average for this time of year is 14,700
  • 80,000 is the number of people that is added to our state’s population each year
  • 9 homes are for sale in Larimer and Weld County priced over $2,500,000
  • -10% is the decrease in new home construction in Larimer County compared to last year while Weld County grew by 17%
  • 11 times in the last 40 years home prices have gone up at least 8% along the Front Range
  • $1,202,488 is the average price for a single-family home in the City of Boulder

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Posted on January 23, 2020 at 4:12 am
Brandon Bidwell | Posted in Market Data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,